Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e9cc8102d4c8a69487c9870608364f8854ac0e45f1829073381eb9d0dc6eeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $376,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $377,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $376,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31d4…9930backed No | 52c | 78,522$40,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,440.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8b…e496backed Yes | 48c | 39,388$18,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,481.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…e989backed Yes | 49c | 39,134$19,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,958.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 54c | 18,233$9,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,397.14 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…0819backed No | 11c | 13,973$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 56c | 12,558$7,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,554.53 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed No | 62c | 12,000$7,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,414.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 72c | 10,491$7,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,945.49 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 41c | 10,348$4,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,070.07 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked No | 2c | 10,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 16c | 8,888$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.64 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb4…ac9cbacked No | 24c | 8,207$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 58c | 6,388$3,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,715.03 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked No | 18c | 6,102$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 59c | 5,926$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,406.92 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 68c | 5,416$3,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,675.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.98 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 34c | 4,423$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.61 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 66c | 4,293$2,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,842.74 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 33c | 4,221$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.82 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 42c | 3,917$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.02 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 60c | 3,491$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.17 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 3,405$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…cc73backed No | 32c | 3,115$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…3ba8backed No | 33c | 3,050$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.99 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…b60fbacked No | 12c | 2,968$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…12f6backed No | 43c | 2,619$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 31c | 2,491$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.83 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2644…daecbacked No | 22c | 2,237$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 76c | 2,048$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.59 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed No | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 76c | 1,876$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.44 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 59c | 1,712$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.2 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…67ecbacked No | 28c | 1,617$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 42c | 1,615$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.72 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 76c | 1,608$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.11 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed No | 23c | 1,428$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +118%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 72c | 1,424$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.83 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 72c | 1,350$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 76c | 1,328$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.04 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,229$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.76 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 70c | 1,211$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.73 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 38c | 1,172$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.48 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 49c | 1,165$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.73 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3038backed Yes | 73c | 1,141$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked No | 36c | 1,110$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 53c | 1,102$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.89 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 39c | 1,100$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 12c | 909.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 78c | 830$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.6 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 39c | 800$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked Yes | 39c | 711.18$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 35c | 708.71$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.04 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 63c | 706.28$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.5 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked Yes | 39c | 668.39$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.72 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 38c | 643.85$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.87 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 61c | 639.37$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.91 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 62c | 600$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 61c | 600$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 45c | 600$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa191…6a04backed No | 67c | 595.86$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 15c | 581.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 41c | 566$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…6f16backed No | 33c | 543.16$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 35c | 539.57$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.64 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes | 46c | 525.63$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes | 39c | 524.39$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 57c | 499.98$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 69c | 499.98$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked Yes | 46c | 462$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.28 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 51c | 436.8$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.68 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed No | 61c | 423.92$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.16 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 61c | 400$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.57 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…04e2backed No | 65c | 400$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 59c | 400$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e7…1af1backed No | 53c | 400$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 45c | 394.02$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.31 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 61c | 377.44$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.94 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 61c | 374.57$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.56 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…abc9backed No | 9c | 373.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…8d71backed Yes | 73c | 368$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05cb…cf10backed No | 55c | 364.98$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 56c | 341.26$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aef…6a38backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 77c | 298$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…a059backed No | 68c | 295.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 70cpaid | -36%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 34c | 291.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.61 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 259.26$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.04 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…3352backed Yes | 38c | 255.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…719abacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 223.34$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 28c | 223.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 47c | 222$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked Yes | 34c | 221.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.18 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.