TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb67c…a2c3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 50 out of 100 (0.00 per pick) — its least-bad Category, not a recommendation. Every Category this wallet trades grades at or below 50, which is what “no edge at all” looks like.

Best Category Us Politics at 50 out of 100; worst AI at 37.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1910.5%2 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-86.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$4,318Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$4,318.12
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,752Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,752.32
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,981Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$1,981.31
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$6,615Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+25.1%+$1,657.77
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,559.51
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$866Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$866.38
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$955Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$955.15
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$330.62
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,540Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,540.17
Will Musk say "Inflation" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.52
Will Musk say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$4.49
Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.5
Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$113.51
Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$522Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$522.47
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$243.93
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$16.5
Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$88.7
All 19 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2025, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,660Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$1,093.16
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$5,317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,317.28
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$525.1
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$339.78
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$66
Will the next Pope be from Europe?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$671Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$670.76
Will the next Pope be from Asia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$253.09
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$765Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$765.27
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$86
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$4,305Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+30.3%+$1,304.94
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,750Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+27.6%+$483.73
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.83
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$598
Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+40.9%+$122.19
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$207.19
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+158%+$321.18
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.45
Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$219.4
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$10,265Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10,264.68
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$406.83
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$300.35
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$43.83
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.78
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$85
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+42.8%+$146.19
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.91
Will the US sanction Russia before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Space — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.