Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5258ec0ea2daab97917f0bb2e8fa349f5081cafc71bd643c414f74fc893cb7c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 17c | 10,933$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.84 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 11c | 8,441$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.06 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,726$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.33 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,613$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Yes | 7c | 4,380$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 1c | 4,001$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.56 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…86dcbacked Yes | 9c | 2,210$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 10c | 2,194$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes | 40c | 2,156$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.44 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 10c | 1,878$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.54 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 8c | 1,721$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.46 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed Yes | 12c | 1,687$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2237…97b0backed Yes | 11c | 1,600$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,520$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 15c | 1,328$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.16 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,235$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 1,182$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…38aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,153$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 10c | 1,113$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…0930backed Yes | 27c | 1,096$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 11c | 1,074$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff76…9c05backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 15c | 928.04$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.28 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c5…a76fbacked Yes | 6c | 901.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 5c | 792.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…887ebacked Yes | 13c | 768.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0214…c813backed Yes | 14c | 726.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 28c | 605.89$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 14c | 600$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked No | 77c | 564.16$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.8 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41d9…170bbacked Yes | 11c | 559.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db1…14cebacked Yes | 32c | 517.63$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d88…afe1backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 13c | 490$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 13c | 484.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 9c | 466.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 12c | 453.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…7057backed Yes | 4c | 405.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8503…dc65backed No | 78c | 393.78$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…9c74backed Yes | 12c | 356.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 351.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 11c | 338.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed Yes | 11c | 329.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked Yes | 28c | 302.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 12c | 302.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…bf5cbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b0…f22ebacked Yes | 13c | 283.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…adfbbacked Yes | 6c | 260.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 13c | 259$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 13c | 240$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1174…913cbacked Yes | 14c | 214$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 206.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 14c | 202.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…3dabbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…f7dcbacked Yes | 13c | 192.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes | 10c | 174.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…7fcbbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f65…3381backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 14c | 164.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…cc55backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3f…0ffbbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 65c | 128.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 77c | 128.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaa…2b42backed No | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…487cbacked Yes | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…28ccbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…5dfebacked Yes | 13c | 111.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 13c | 110.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be5…cc6fbacked Yes | 11c | 101.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…a289backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…b9c4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +411%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…79b0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes | 14c | 96.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…9719backed Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 12c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 14c | 75.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc619…a8c1backed Yes | 17c | 70.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 68.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…0c77backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6a…0f92backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…adccbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe9…0610backed Yes | 47c | 53.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +152.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…7dadbacked Yes | 58c | 34.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9995backed No | 74c | 27.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…d82bbacked Yes | 49c | 24.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump lower tariffs on China by April 30?this page
- Will Trump lower tariffs on China by July 31?Yes won
- Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.