TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbe94…7bb6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
121
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST3119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$64.34
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$381.86
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$146.06
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,375Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,374.65
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$15.5
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.9
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$33
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+596%+$1,851.53
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$180.43
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.7
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Trump" 3+ times during the press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+42.1%+$96.25
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Tesla" during the press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "IQ" during the press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Biden" during the press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,373Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+34.6%+$475.69
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$193.16
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.78
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$267.52
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 46.5% on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$967Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$966.51
Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$170.78
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.4
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$430
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$840
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Cabo Verde · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will the announcers say "Underdog" during the Argentina vs Cape Verde FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+113.6%+$32.62
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,184Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$849.39
Will France win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,745Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+29.1%+$508.63
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$81.6
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$473Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$627
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,851Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,850.63
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+55%+$21.3
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$26
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+220.5%+$172
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will France win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$910Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$390
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$769Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$204.54
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$612Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$288
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 24 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2025, EDT1717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Marlins vs. Nationalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$196.8
White Sox vs. Astrosbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Braves vs. Brewersbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.17
Cubs vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.22
Red Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+527.9%+$1,668.89
Padres vs. Giantsbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Nationals vs. Diamondbacksbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.5
Athletics vs. Blue Jaysbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Athletics vs. Blue Jaysbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$116.8
Pirates vs. Padresbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.25
Tigers vs. Royalsbacked Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.33
Nationals vs. Marinersbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+250.9%+$143
Pirates vs. Diamondbacksbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Athletics vs. Astrosbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.39
Red Sox vs. Brewersbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Dodgers vs. Guardiansbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.75
Red Sox vs. Tigersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$172
All 17 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1540%6 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34.9
Will Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$12.46
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$23
Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$58
Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+66%+$109.28
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,454Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+52.2%+$758.99
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+549.7%+$1,071.71
Will Netanyahu say "Palestine" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.92
Will Netanyahu say "Antisemitic" or "Antisemitism" 5+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$27
Will Netanyahu say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.15
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.77
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.42
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Suns vs. Warriorsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$67
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,684Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,683.74
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.04
Magic vs. Wizardsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+31.8%+$55
All 4 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$38.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Devilsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$227.39
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.