Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8566865c2f3a559a5b58e045289cd6437ad1d5437fee535b26d18d3b6b950afc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $426,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $419,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 27,293$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.66 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 2c | 22,835$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.8 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 21c | 21,058$4,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,478.91 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…607ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,030$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 7c | 12,114$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.1 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…3d7cbacked Yes | 20c | 11,813$2,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 10c | 8,644$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.01 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 3c | 8,221$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.78 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 4c | 6,070$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.45 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf34…8816backed Yes | 16c | 5,083$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 19c | 4,996$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 67c | 4,562$3,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.61 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 7c | 3,941$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.08 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed No | 80c | 3,931$3,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.56 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yes | 12c | 3,842$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 16c | 3,568$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.41 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,396$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.33 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf873…9ae1backed Yes | 26c | 2,797$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 26c | 2,671$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.46 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…2d43backed Yes | 40c | 2,494$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 7c | 2,480$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.78 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 68c | 2,419$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.39 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,149$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 19c | 1,935$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.6 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 21c | 1,929$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +203.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…6404backed No | 70c | 1,853$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…a223backed Yes | 9c | 1,649$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…c356backed No | 79c | 1,537$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 79c | 1,525$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.68 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 21c | 1,525$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.31 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 12c | 1,487$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 8c | 1,425$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes | 9c | 1,377$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed No | 73c | 1,366$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.13 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…67efbacked Yes | 44c | 1,363$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 1,326$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.35 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 4c | 1,311$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 73c | 1,276$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…71adbacked Yes | 12c | 1,256$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,249$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.09 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e55…41fcbacked Yes | 23c | 1,219$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…d6c4backed Yes | 20c | 1,193$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…1d10backed Yes | 1c | 1,174$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +278.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed Yes | 2c | 1,160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 10c | 1,135$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed No | 78c | 1,110$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.2 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,102$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 5c | 1,089$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71a…6fc9backed Yes | 11c | 1,018$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 8c | 995.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 64c | 981.18$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.97 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edb…4b51backed Yes | 10c | 961.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…0213backed Yes | 29c | 899.69$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed No | 70c | 875.58$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.09 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 78c | 855.37$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.84 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…1b1cbacked Yes | 20c | 791.35$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 737$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…c246backed Yes | 10c | 736.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…789fbacked No | 68c | 723.93$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…7ef7backed Yes | 7c | 721.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked Yes | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 9c | 680.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 662.02$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 20c | 609.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 7c | 596.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d8…99b6backed Yes | 2c | 570$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 10c | 565.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 8c | 554.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 529.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 27c | 525.88$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.99 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6146…312abacked Yes | 19c | 520.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed Yes | 12c | 512.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 46cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 19c | 500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…7668backed Yes | 40c | 496.95$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 32c | 481.39$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 481.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 78c | 480$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Yes | 26c | 466.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 4c | 465.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 73c | 444.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666e…fff6backed Yes | 15c | 435.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed No | 71c | 434.5$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 15c | 413.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 79c | 402.31$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 34c | 400$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed Yes | 19c | 400$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21de…cca6backed Yes | 26c | 397.43$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…4366backed Yes | 9c | 393.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…170cbacked No | 80c | 375.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…b060backed Yes | 26c | 372.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 34c | 369.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61d5…4bccbacked Yes | 7c | 368.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…ad95backed Yes | 28c | 366.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 28c | 363.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?this page
- Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?Yes won
- Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.