Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43829ee12a03a8b8d8858388fe59293bf81bea51a40ce2a0f775892500a52675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $323,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf34…8816backed Yes | 3c | 118,060$3,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,809.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 18,563$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.67 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 1c | 18,408$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +203.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 2c | 17,924$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.46 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…3d7cbacked Yes | 24c | 16,938$4,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,064.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 12c | 13,034$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.25 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…4580backed Yes | 9c | 7,326$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 5c | 4,953$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.62 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 3c | 3,689$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…d6c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,591$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…71adbacked Yes | 5c | 2,156$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…12b1backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71a…6fc9backed Yes | 7c | 1,994$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 64c | 1,540$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.3 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,441$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 1,435$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,407$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.56 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,360$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.74 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 10c | 1,226$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 1,113$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed Yes | 4c | 1,001$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 4c | 995.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 12c | 992.44$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…1b8abacked Yes | 40c | 945.85$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 8c | 910.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 11c | 900.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.87 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 15c | 805.4$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.03 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 5c | 718.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 6c | 673.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 22c | 668.61$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed No | 78c | 533.84$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.73 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 6c | 492.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…da48backed Yes | 9c | 468.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…0213backed Yes | 13c | 460.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 455.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed Yes | 5c | 411.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…4f85backed Yes | 4c | 409.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 391.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…c5f9backed Yes | 11c | 357.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 15c | 342.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcab3…4288backed Yes | 8c | 327.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 11c | 315.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 6c | 283.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…4366backed Yes | 9c | 281.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 12c | 247.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…b390backed Yes | 14c | 227.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3acb…2efcbacked Yes | 6c | 216.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 12c | 198.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked No | 80c | 190.12$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 8c | 188.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x834d…c896backed Yes | 12c | 173.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…67efbacked Yes | 15c | 166.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yes | 7c | 160.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7830…783fbacked Yes | 13c | 158.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 17c | 137.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 17c | 133$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 16c | 131.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 74c | 115.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…adbebacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…9631backed Yes | 55c | 106.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…6bc4backed Yes | 15c | 98.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 18c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c1…e1e3backed Yes | 37c | 54.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?this page
- Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?Yes won
- Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.