TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd087…b390

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Tweets at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$3,326Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,326.09
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$661Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+659.3%+$4,360.73
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$991Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$990.72
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,125
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.8
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.55
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.3
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.67
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+46.5%+$9.3
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$21.59
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$27.29
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$19.42
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$8.33
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
All 23 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2025, EST1040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+594.4%+$286.63
Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$68.5
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$37.77
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$635Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$634.55
Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$32.81
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$43.68
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+25%+$20
Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+408.5%+$120.5
Trump wins a solid blue state?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+25%+$25
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-54.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$356.11
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$68.1
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$119.92
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+40%+$110.63
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$63
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+33.3%+$49.86
All 9 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+106.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$38.39
Rockets vs. Cavaliersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+35.9%+$20.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+104.1%+$102
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.