TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,963,491
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,688,996

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,963,491 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,744 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c33…0563backed No67c678,304$453,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,536.274752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No58c314,997$182,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182,767.871,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe549…2d54backed Yes17c300,000$51,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249,00015552.3%81 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Yes17c264,706$45,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219,705.8819644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No70c261,925$183,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,118.832,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c2…2ab0backed Yes61c242,950$149,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,739.58812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.37per pick50cpaid-79.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes28c169,665$47,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122,361.4432031.6%101 W · 219 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes39c149,796$58,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,972.498,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x408f…b2f4backed Yes44c149,190$65,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,546.264151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked No32c145,476$46,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,654.7949441.5%205 W · 289 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No46c143,590$66,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,292.243,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes75c71,351$53,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,531.0879231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad7…ae48backed Yes47c60,000$28,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,749.994355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Yes17c58,824$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,823.5313742.3%58 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes32c41,229$13,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,143.32,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f63…e539backed Yes68c41,080$27,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,227.91866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed Yes17c40,361$6,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,499.836633.3%22 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes33c39,431$12,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,563.624,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No67c38,656$25,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,857.51,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No25c38,122$9,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,344.5156541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes74c34,775$25,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,085.492,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa55…fae5backed Yes9c34,716$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,716.312015%3 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No26c32,140$8,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,265.7842541.6%177 W · 248 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Yes28c30,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,599.999451.1%48 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3496…8fc4backed No35c30,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,499.9817034.7%59 W · 111 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes7c30,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,899.889627.1%26 W · 70 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick30cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1569…bf0cbacked Yes9c29,710$2,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,035.9933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+101.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63c2…afd4backed Yes26c29,000$7,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,369.991163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+71.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2458…df0ebacked Yes72c22,856$16,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,468.78425%21 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06f2…1269backed Yes62c19,999$12,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,576.1238333.9%130 W · 253 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b2c…d7e6backed Yes18c19,000$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,5802045%9 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x293c…a146backed Yes78c18,406$14,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed Yes17c17,647$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,647.063622.2%8 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec23…24fdbacked Yes27c17,291$4,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,614.322751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes18c16,077$2,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,183.553721.6%8 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa1b2…40cabacked Yes16c16,018$2,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,454.831216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid+35.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked Yes35c15,000$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,7503324.2%8 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x953b…4079backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc0…a531backed Yes78c14,760$11,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,236.71666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Yes17c13,281$2,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,023.197455.4%41 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26ea…2f4bbacked Yes77c12,996$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,995.781450%7 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No41c12,655$5,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,183.5474034.1%252 W · 488 L-36.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes55c12,644$6,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,699.3721141.7%88 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2824…4aacbacked Yes8c12,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,50010921.1%23 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+3.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f6e…b0e0backed No72c12,075$8,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,6941520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-62.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5be6…00f2backed Yes8c12,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,0404621.7%10 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…b06abacked Yes17c11,765$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,764.715320.8%11 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16e3…22d5backed Yes21c11,000$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,689.982339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+57.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0343…f2dcbacked Yes17c10,752$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,924.161643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4838…3535backed Yes17c10,300$1,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,5262433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes9c9,849$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,965.935322.6%12 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked No64c8,905$5,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,741.8544435.4%157 W · 287 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes17c8,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,64017632.4%57 W · 119 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9db…33e4backed Yes62c7,349$4,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,791.351369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca1…fb09backed Yes10c7,313$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,582.016624.2%16 W · 50 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+92.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yes28c7,285$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,246.242,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No48c7,088$3,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,430.962,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4641…d7bfbacked Yes63c7,004$4,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,625.121070%7 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+8.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa422…2b56backed Yes17c6,941$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,761.189239.1%36 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No28c6,586$1,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.5945039.6%178 W · 272 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes17c6,581$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,462.431,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd581…2b59backed Yes31c6,452$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,451.612138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes48c6,412$3,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,303.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc23e…98a4backed Yes17c6,400$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3124531.1%14 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Yes16c6,302$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,293.6233538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1c…d8b5backed Yes8c6,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,75014734%50 W · 97 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Yes27c6,062$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,403.6616325.8%42 W · 121 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-36.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…6278backed Yes17c5,882$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,882.351850%9 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked No20c5,859$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.9838734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Yes28c5,845$1,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,182.515257.7%30 W · 22 L+8.6wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+48.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1685…6de4backed Yes77c5,844$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.1627239%106 W · 166 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf59c…a682backed Yes68c5,647$3,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.637636.8%28 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb909…c20bbacked Yes32c5,574$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,773.827445.9%34 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4550…f741backed Yes18c5,556$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,555.563125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a2a…1fcabacked Yes17c5,555$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,610.728048.8%39 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8227…013dbacked Yes36c5,508$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,508.456328.6%18 W · 45 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-50.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes66c5,335$3,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.1536634.4%126 W · 240 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Yes75c5,333$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.336241.9%26 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x491d…e425backed Yes57c5,276$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,275.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No69c5,103$3,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,534.7742043.1%181 W · 239 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…cb34backed Yes41c5,073$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,973.17740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c5…dbcfbacked Yes66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7002133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd458…b521backed Yes12c4,802$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,202.857342.5%31 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+75.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No69c4,653$3,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,224.774,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49a…6f4cbacked Yes44c4,545$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.451752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc40…9c9dbacked Yes62c4,516$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.135440.7%22 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…c1b5backed Yes67c4,315$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.495844.8%26 W · 32 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes17c4,075$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,368.3673626.5%195 W · 541 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce39…f482backed Yes57c4,043$2,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.036740.3%27 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb755…b009backed Yes18c4,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2801450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+138.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba55…41f1backed No17c4,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+159.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc60f…5b36backed Yes9c3,985$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,645.297630.3%23 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87ec…138fbacked No48c3,938$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.618851.1%96 W · 92 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180a…54a6backed Yes17c3,905$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,241.22040%8 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+69.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe766…404dbacked No72c3,867$2,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,784.592835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43f0…a0dbbacked Yes55c3,854$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.291457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc88f…d893backed Yes38c3,838$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379.410932.1%35 W · 74 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6550…8451backed No60c3,812$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.5521738.7%84 W · 133 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes42c3,794$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,197.9665835%230 W · 428 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7f…18cdbacked Yes38c3,660$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,270.1720649.5%102 W · 104 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.