Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a73cbc8cc5be9aee0a6006ef11e9ee74e94cee0d7ad2401d30a3b98a689b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 254 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2a2…6414backed No | 1c | 16,830$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.97 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cef…92e9backed No | 26c | 6,510$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 17c | 6,017$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.21 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 15c | 5,949$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.92 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 22c | 5,472$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.18 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…8887backed Yes | 74c | 4,125$3,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.07 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…cd38backed No | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 16c | 2,691$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.79 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 12c | 2,185$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.72 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 16c | 2,179$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.9 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 7c | 2,082$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 24c | 1,800$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.72 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed No | 15c | 1,746$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.21 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…a125backed Yes | 79c | 1,510$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.13 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 27c | 1,500$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.93 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 21c | 1,491$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.94 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 1,468$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.5 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 21c | 1,424$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.91 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…e832backed Yes | 75c | 1,331$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fb…5bb6backed Yes | 78c | 1,283$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 10c | 1,080$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.41 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…d2cebacked No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…2256backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…0ff9backed Yes | 70c | 999.98$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…2d67backed No | 9c | 968.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…4441backed Yes | 76c | 882.19$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 18c | 830.11$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…bb91backed No | 15c | 713.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed No | 27c | 700$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…86c8backed No | 14c | 692.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Yes | 75c | 669.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 74c | 653.03$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.91 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 15c | 643.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ca…5e3ebacked No | 16c | 624.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe119…6b06backed No | 17c | 599.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 4c | 521.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4428…12adbacked No | 15c | 516.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 16c | 458.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe956…7430backed No | 17c | 422.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 15c | 418.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf929…df01backed Yes | 74c | 407.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 74c | 406.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…e7d8backed Yes | 80c | 382.46$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e9…9f36backed No | 14c | 349.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 17c | 347.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfd…184bbacked No | 11c | 334.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…9ad7backed No | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…b984backed No | 20c | 329.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked No | 12c | 320.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +98%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…3da7backed No | 16c | 312.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes | 79c | 290.16$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…0200backed No | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7069backed No | 15c | 285$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…6eb4backed Yes | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…189ebacked Yes | 77c | 274.22$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 18c | 271.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…ed8dbacked Yes | 79c | 251.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…1a38backed No | 7c | 241.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed No | 17c | 240.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb298…37d6backed No | 11c | 220$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…bee1backed Yes | 72c | 210.38$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed No | 19c | 209.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…0a49backed No | 19c | 208.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa743…6a3ebacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd231…7562backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…2c77backed No | 23c | 197.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…0bd7backed No | 26c | 196.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…3b18backed Yes | 79c | 184.27$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…eaa7backed Yes | 78c | 179.95$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…265ebacked No | 18c | 170.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed No | 24c | 169.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…3b3fbacked No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…e7d5backed No | 15c | 166.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 21c | 162.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked No | 7c | 157.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a2…ad8bbacked Yes | 74c | 147.28$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…5edebacked No | 15c | 146.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked No | 12c | 144.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa735…b423backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 76c | 131.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked Yes | 79c | 125.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…096fbacked Yes | 75c | 122$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 121.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…0c77backed No | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0217…347cbacked No | 9c | 118.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…119bbacked No | 29c | 116.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 25c | 113.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.