Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0945545bf6ad2d1d7037aa9bf5d1f981f88f7c3eea45e19ad184ef4ef7ecc6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $381,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $396,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 6c | 28,604$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…8553backed Yes | 8c | 24,668$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9520…fa6ebacked Yes | 5c | 12,950$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 10,448$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.18 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…fba1backed Yes | 7c | 9,837$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 8,231$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.28 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 7c | 7,694$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…5932backed Yes | 7c | 6,134$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…9f29backed Yes | 5c | 5,104$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…947bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,206$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 5c | 3,990$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.07 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,676$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 7c | 3,541$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 7c | 3,539$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…69f0backed Yes | 6c | 3,165$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 5c | 3,165$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…b905backed Yes | 9c | 2,757$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…022dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,676$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 8c | 2,625$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.29 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 5c | 2,412$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 4c | 2,325$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69da…f98cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,105$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…d51dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,085$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 7c | 2,001$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…b060backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…4f72backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd613…e999backed Yes | 7c | 1,991$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 6c | 1,963$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.67 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…6f8bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,875$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a59…dbeabacked Yes | 8c | 1,853$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31f…0290backed Yes | 7c | 1,787$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…90ccbacked Yes | 6c | 1,773$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,692$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,624$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes | 5c | 1,571$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…756abacked Yes | 10c | 1,494$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 1,341$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb144…c040backed Yes | 6c | 1,316$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…46cabacked Yes | 5c | 1,303$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4183…fee7backed Yes | 8c | 1,299$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2826…03f6backed Yes | 13c | 1,298$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…361bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,219$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…d59abacked Yes | 9c | 1,110$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 5c | 1,102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…0ce4backed Yes | 9c | 1,093$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,090$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 5c | 1,073$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8d…4ebfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,045$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…f289backed Yes | 5c | 1,042$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 6c | 1,006$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7a…ae5abacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc909…636ebacked Yes | 5c | 999.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 7c | 855$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 7c | 812.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3330…3205backed Yes | 6c | 792.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5183…7de7backed Yes | 5c | 750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…b50bbacked Yes | 6c | 731.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed Yes | 7c | 724.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822a…d870backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…000fbacked Yes | 9c | 673.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 631.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 9c | 600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 9c | 568.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 5c | 553.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc700…6b58backed Yes | 9c | 552.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b2…e941backed Yes | 8c | 531.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes | 5c | 518$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 5c | 502.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…cccebacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…dbc7backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 5c | 494.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…7200backed Yes | 9c | 488.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e3…9ee9backed Yes | 5c | 454$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487c…4daabacked Yes | 7c | 437.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4426…1266backed Yes | 5c | 434.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…35e7backed Yes | 5c | 433.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5c…3cbabacked Yes | 5c | 427.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…7076backed Yes | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…d9a5backed Yes | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…2bedbacked Yes | 5c | 423.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e94…7074backed Yes | 7c | 421.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…2c77backed Yes | 5c | 418.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…6ce0backed Yes | 5c | 418$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 11c | 415.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b6…360fbacked Yes | 7c | 409.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…bac4backed Yes | 7c | 402.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…04a5backed Yes | 8c | 400.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +320.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd452…03e0backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…f049backed Yes | 8c | 364.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4026…fdd1backed Yes | 5c | 362.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…c28dbacked Yes | 7c | 340.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…08cebacked Yes | 9c | 333.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes | 9c | 332.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…0ac6backed Yes | 10c | 304.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.