Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec062773d9bcb38e22d673402ea20e895c764e0f85d8691c541fa896812c1948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,988,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,370,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,988,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,852 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 67c | 294,445$198,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96,200.11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 69c | 271,723$187,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,036.17 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 65c | 225,216$146,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,968.29 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 62c | 186,069$116,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,840.52 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b63…8498backed Yes | 60c | 165,966$100,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…e5a4backed Yes | 29c | 160,753$46,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,857.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9520…fa6ebacked Yes | 23c | 157,700$36,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,117.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…b405backed Yes | 33c | 153,141$51,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,077.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 64c | 138,497$89,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,399.61 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 63c | 132,851$83,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,273.04 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 59c | 115,646$68,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,904.28 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 69c | 114,366$78,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,830.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 66c | 102,080$67,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,544.85 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 77c | 95,140$73,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,870.02 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 59c | 95,004$55,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,022.75 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 60c | 80,244$48,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,207.2 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…4c4ebacked Yes | 46c | 75,723$34,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,671.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1e…04d0backed Yes | 44c | 66,727$29,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,660.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 58c | 64,939$37,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,513.25 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 73c | 63,095$46,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,941.19 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…61cebacked No | 75c | 59,501$44,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,125.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 69c | 57,160$39,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,828.29 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 64c | 53,707$34,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,232.92 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 56c | 52,961$29,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,146.12 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…685dbacked Yes | 47c | 51,951$24,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e94ebacked Yes | 32c | 51,236$16,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,243.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed No | 66c | 47,036$31,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,886.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 16c | 46,038$7,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,476.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fd…b710backed Yes | 22c | 45,387$9,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,831.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…bf96backed Yes | 40c | 41,895$16,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,671.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 63c | 41,724$26,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,494.22 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e37…9248backed Yes | 39c | 40,927$15,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,989.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 59c | 40,809$24,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,611.18 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…1ff4backed No | 68c | 40,765$27,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,957.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…50fbbacked Yes | 37c | 36,536$13,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,619.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed No | 52c | 36,398$18,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,626.03 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 70c | 35,718$25,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,609.41 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609a…5342backed Yes | 49c | 34,480$16,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,896 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…5828backed Yes | 27c | 34,051$9,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,043.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…5214backed Yes | 18c | 33,623$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 63c | 32,000$20,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,899.99 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 80c | 31,616$25,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,330.57 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…63d5backed Yes | 48c | 31,420$15,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,009.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 74c | 31,058$22,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,068.95 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 78c | 30,975$24,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,869.8 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c9…da80backed Yes | 33c | 30,291$9,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,890.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…85a9backed Yes | 20c | 29,923$6,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,122.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 72c | 29,002$20,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,215.09 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 73c | 28,599$20,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,690.77 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 23c | 28,362$6,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,569.13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x444a…1913backed Yes | 51c | 27,218$13,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,973 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa70f…37bbbacked Yes | 23c | 26,592$6,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,159.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…aa7fbacked Yes | 39c | 25,615$9,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,987.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 60c | 23,180$13,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,380.01 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…c1f6backed Yes | 24c | 23,051$5,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,507.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…c64fbacked Yes | 18c | 22,200$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 55c | 22,000$12,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,938.22 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 79c | 21,997$17,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,524.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9e…ff5cbacked Yes | 47c | 21,132$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 61c | 20,764$12,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,139.05 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked No | 71c | 20,460$14,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,994.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…2549backed No | 59c | 20,150$11,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,329.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 24c | 20,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…2657backed No | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf573…a43bbacked Yes | 25c | 19,935$4,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,988.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 68c | 19,920$13,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,411.22 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 59c | 19,899$11,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,077.17 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…b4eabacked Yes | 38c | 18,602$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 73c | 18,500$13,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,945 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 65c | 17,872$11,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,217.28 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…06c1backed Yes | 24c | 17,616$4,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,210.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 74c | 16,320$12,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,304.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed No | 76c | 16,221$12,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,814.28 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…1540backed Yes | 35c | 16,179$5,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,724.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked No | 73c | 15,936$11,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,296.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 71c | 15,813$11,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,559.08 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 68c | 15,311$10,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,839.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Yes | 30c | 15,004$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 68c | 15,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,799.98 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…5bf1backed Yes | 30c | 14,802$4,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,455.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…a371backed Yes | 24c | 14,460$3,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,473.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…121bbacked Yes | 19c | 14,404$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,697.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bb…8827backed Yes | 16c | 13,686$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae4…24c4backed Yes | 39c | 13,481$5,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,309.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7cf7backed Yes | 0c | 13,400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 72c | 13,388$9,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,790.91 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…d382backed Yes | 42c | 13,113$5,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,479 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 67c | 13,031$8,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,328.24 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 42c | 12,400$5,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,196.98 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fad…2765backed Yes | 19c | 12,187$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 74c | 12,178$8,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,211.89 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…0d9bbacked Yes | 49c | 12,160$5,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,947.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eff…e593backed Yes | 47c | 11,529$5,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,416.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5230…e16cbacked Yes | 25c | 11,524$2,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,936.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188c…c62bbacked Yes | 40c | 11,121$4,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,448.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 11c | 10,545$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.84 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80eb…5bfcbacked No | 71c | 10,503$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,003.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db5…70f9backed Yes | 24c | 10,434$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,504.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb2…d266backed Yes | 24c | 10,355$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…b7f5backed Yes | 22c | 10,227$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.