Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29baca00aa36292fa99fa9d3d398282409ec8a27e9be38af11c690390029353d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42f9…38d5backed No | 0c | 41,824$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 9,037$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.74 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108e…d5d0backed No | 9c | 5,662$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…3da7backed No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed No | 11c | 4,547$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…265ebacked No | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…5127backed No | 13c | 3,999$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 11c | 3,579$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 12c | 3,230$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.91 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 13c | 2,753$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.89 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 17c | 2,616$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.32 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad21…7123backed No | 21c | 2,399$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 12c | 2,367$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.49 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9436…af9ebacked No | 10c | 2,356$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53e…7bb3backed No | 13c | 2,325$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a75…3748backed No | 14c | 2,322$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed No | 10c | 2,255$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 16c | 2,160$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 11c | 2,018$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.11 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 10c | 1,942$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.69 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 1,666$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 14c | 1,430$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed No | 14c | 1,402$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed No | 10c | 1,111$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ac…b46fbacked No | 13c | 957.69$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked No | 13c | 917.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +98%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…86c8backed No | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 80c | 897.13$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…02b4backed No | 8c | 886.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…ae37backed No | 12c | 866.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 18c | 786.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.9 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 785.87$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.03 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed No | 19c | 721.47$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x448f…b2e7backed No | 9c | 537.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…639fbacked No | 11c | 516.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96e…a416backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17b…8937backed No | 20c | 487.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 13c | 477.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…0bd7backed No | 14c | 459.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…2ff8backed No | 12c | 451.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 11c | 401.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 17c | 399.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae6…5604backed No | 8c | 399.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f29…c7efbacked No | 13c | 391.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 10c | 376.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…38cebacked No | 17c | 376.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 13c | 371.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…0506backed No | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed No | 22c | 349.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…a885backed No | 9c | 323.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c4…ad84backed No | 13c | 320.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 17c | 299.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed No | 10c | 296.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked No | 14c | 276.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 33cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ee…cf2cbacked No | 10c | 274.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed No | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…5338backed No | 8c | 262.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5230…e16cbacked No | 9c | 240.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed No | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed No | 13c | 220$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b8…abeabacked No | 17c | 217.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2083…962ebacked No | 7c | 216.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…6ed4backed No | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 24c | 212.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…7d5cbacked No | 20c | 207.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 79c | 205.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a9…1e1dbacked No | 10c | 205.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…c5f9backed No | 11c | 202$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 78c | 200.75$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…bfbabacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…2c77backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…c13fbacked No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb64b…1d1dbacked No | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…0e8bbacked No | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…3e42backed No | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a2…6414backed No | 11c | 182.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…e7d5backed No | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed No | 6c | 169.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f9…3b70backed No | 12c | 162.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 15c | 158.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…9574backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…7c6cbacked No | 9c | 151.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…fa95backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 11c | 139.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb271…afdebacked Yes | 76c | 133$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca49…5177backed Yes | 78c | 127.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1481…9e66backed No | 16c | 126.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed No | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked No | 10c | 118.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…df71backed No | 11c | 117.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…33c1backed No | 11c | 116.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…cb04backed No | 12c | 115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…8a38backed No | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5420…a717backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…86d1backed No | 17c | 108.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe3…14cdbacked No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.