TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb9ee…cf2c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: CS2, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 57 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$204.08
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.71
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.41
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$124.2
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+134.2%+$57.3
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.53
Will Dommaraju Gukesh win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.17
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$150.5
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$82
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+296%+$431.81
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$85
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$242.36
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$14
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$48
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+62.2%+$57.5
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+139.4%+$572.58
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$107.33
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+47.1%+$12.8
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+28.2%+$110
Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$54
Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$76.8
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$114
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$98.22
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$29
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$21.5
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+244.8%+$57.4
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$88
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$49.8
Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$26.26
All 16 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2025, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournamentbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$626Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$625.83
Will FaZe win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
Will Spirit win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.02
Will Virtus.pro win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.2
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Legacy vs. MOUZbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+151.8%+$129.6
BLAST.tv Austin Major: MOUZ vs. Virtus.probacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$68
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Vitality vs. Legacybacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$541Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+32%+$173.26
BLAST.tv Austin Major stage 2: FaZe vs. MIBRbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$695Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$374.28
Will Falcons win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$317.76
Will FlyQuest qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+118.8%+$53.46
Will TYLOO qualify for Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+101%+$56.29
CS2: BLAST.tv Austin Major: HEROIC vs. FlyQuestbacked FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.2
Will Team Spirit win the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+72.1%+$143.3
Will FaZe Clan win the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$60.11
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.59
OpenAI social app in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$313.18
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+153.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$817Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+153.1%+$1,250.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+61.3%+$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.