Chess · resolved market

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31f44648301a3ba591cef8e9de397bfdf74c64de40dee9458b07dbc7629a6088

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,373,111
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,822,664

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,373,111 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4167…2427backed Yes	0c	215,193$778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$778.47	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	28cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8f6…c52abacked Yes	2c	200,000$3,833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,832.92	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e7…5d32backed Yes	0c	141,394$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99d5…3ad3backed Yes	0c	122,442$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes	2c	115,850$1,961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,960.51	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd8…68b5backed Yes	0c	105,845$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x290c…6f20backed Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb09…dd9cbacked Yes	0c	99,995$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes	0c	82,414$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.79	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf89e…1783backed Yes	2c	67,722$1,644 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,644.35	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1014…f621backed Yes	0c	65,664$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes	38c	63,286$24,286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,285.9	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes	26c	54,336$14,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,095.73	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes	1c	50,719$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.07	54	35.2%19 W · 35 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	-38%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes	0c	50,000$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.03	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ef6…7e2ebacked Yes	0c	46,667$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea6…9545backed Yes	18c	44,852$7,989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,989.3	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0078…c9cdbacked Yes	19c	44,112$8,513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,512.7	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes	0c	38,353$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.12	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08f0…4ca4backed Yes	0c	37,045$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.09	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x381c…4e3bbacked Yes	0c	36,667$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf349…680abacked Yes	0c	34,855$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.86	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes	0c	34,649$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.59	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes	3c	32,542$1,049 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,048.67	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes	1c	31,013$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.08	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes	0c	29,717$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3355…e375backed Yes	25c	29,498$7,322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,321.73	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes	1c	29,190$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.04	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes	2c	25,260$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.32	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	-42%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes	4c	21,261$842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$842.3	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2453…28e2backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes	0c	20,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46e7…987ebacked Yes	2c	19,647$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7c1b…9855backed Yes	0c	19,123$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb482…fbc7backed Yes	0c	18,750$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x256a…9d0ebacked No	48c	17,365$8,409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,955.77	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+106.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes	0c	16,548$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes	70c	15,272$10,648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,647.95	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.18per pick	31cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Yes	50c	15,157$7,605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,604.88	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	49c	15,094$7,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,332.35	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0584…de3ebacked Yes	69c	14,276$9,826 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,826	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes	0c	14,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+222.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes	1c	12,294$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.41	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebc…ca61backed Yes	1c	10,400$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbd0f…ab47backed Yes	0c	10,350$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…06b7backed Yes	1c	10,166$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.3	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes	3c	10,054$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.75	68	20.6%14 W · 54 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes	49c	10,009$4,897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,897.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked No	53c	10,000$5,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,700	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc97c…f569backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5da6…388fbacked Yes	1c	10,000$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.63	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86db…39c4backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8957…cc71backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29f1…b0c4backed Yes	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Yes	5c	9,615$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.46	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bd…bae5backed Yes	0c	9,333$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa1b…e2e2backed Yes	6c	9,118$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.65	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb39…c696backed Yes	1c	8,498$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.52	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-50%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes	44c	8,328$3,664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,664.24	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes	45c	8,053$3,626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,626.21	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc269…c8ccbacked Yes	0c	8,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d6…3e79backed Yes	8c	7,847$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.35	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes	8c	7,634$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.01	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x106a…c091backed Yes	0c	7,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes	59c	6,738$3,970 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,969.99	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a44…a78fbacked Yes	0c	6,344$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.69	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes	2c	6,020$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.76	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes	0c	6,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95a3…046ebacked Yes	11c	5,454$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.94	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…d359backed Yes	67c	5,360$3,615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,614.55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	7c	5,350$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.06	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x286e…adb7backed Yes	56c	5,288$2,971 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,970.71	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c97…6a72backed Yes	2c	5,243$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Yes	35c	5,217$1,821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,820.84	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94e5…6cfebacked Yes	48c	5,128$2,465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,464.6	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.22per pick	51cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f66…4f72backed No	40c	5,000$2,005 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,995	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed Yes	40c	4,956$1,993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,993.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a1…75bcbacked Yes	48c	4,685$2,228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,227.78	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+63.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes	51c	4,079$2,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,080.07	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	20cpaid	-90.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes	9c	3,847$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.12	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa40c…8192backed Yes	0c	3,840$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes	1c	3,682$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.29	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	38c	3,578$1,371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,371.18	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	38cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes	9c	3,563$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.96	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No	33c	3,474$1,158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,316.17	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No	56c	3,403$1,917 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,486.21	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	-3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x329c…578dbacked Yes	2c	3,269$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff9f…3b8abacked Yes	61c	3,247$1,968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,968.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes	3c	3,198$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.49	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca7…31a2backed No	42c	3,177$1,330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,846.55	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+5,506%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes	4c	3,000$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5380…28debacked Yes	56c	2,820$1,590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,590.38	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	33cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes	2c	2,758$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.52	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed Yes	11c	2,726$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.86	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No	52c	2,699$1,404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,294.98	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event