Chess · resolved market

Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2b5c2e18ad5e98ad571e3da70ad24ace6a0edacf7e3458e2ffdcd9e62b6090d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $82,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,995 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1ea6…9545backed Yes	5c	15,021$711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.05	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38ef…de5dbacked Yes	1c	5,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…e4a7backed Yes	1c	2,528$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-83.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38cb…8e1fbacked Yes	4c	1,775$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.31	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+22%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	1,646$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes	3c	1,638$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.34	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df8…5907backed Yes	7c	1,601$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.54	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes	3c	1,536$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes	5c	1,521$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3021…a229backed Yes	18c	1,449$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.53	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	3c	1,110$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x739e…00fcbacked Yes	1c	1,102$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.24per pick	43cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeba1…8598backed Yes	6c	997.16$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.6	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes	22c	899.51$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	-42%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes	3c	880$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.3	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+222.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64ad…3050backed Yes	4c	694.46$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.41	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes	5c	620$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.58	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes	17c	592.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes	2c	570$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes	4c	526.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	6cpaid	+288.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40c…8192backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf89e…1783backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2e…6856backed Yes	5c	408.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.26per pick	39cpaid	-84.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	6c	381.54$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa1b…e2e2backed Yes	5c	317$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.66	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a8…3783backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	9c	284.09$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-12.3wins	-0.16per pick	24cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xeb39…c696backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-50%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x821e…7478backed Yes	8c	238.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb538…d3a6backed Yes	5c	231$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b0…1f4bbacked Yes	8c	149.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes	7c	143.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event