TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$167,873
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,873 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5396…ded6backed Yes0c34,075$34 inLost-$34.071816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+5,582.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70a9…6a74backed Yes3c4,000$119 inLost-$119.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes2c3,506$79 inLost-$79.232412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2499…fed3backed Yes3c3,000$88 inLost-$88.450%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes2c2,843$66 inLost-$65.956820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes2c2,836$56 inLost-$55.991717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes4c1,802$75 inLost-$752334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x985a…e9e4backed Yes1c1,682$25 inLost-$25540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+190.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ecc…b46dbacked Yes2c1,601$40 inLost-$40100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,152$17 inLost-$17.3511011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c1,000$11 inLost-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes2c1,000$16 inLost-$164010%4 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost-$202313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed Yes3c814.99$26 inLost-$25.862010%2 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b67…584fbacked Yes3c795$23 inLost-$2360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes4c660.03$25 inLost-$251020%2 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+288.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x480a…6bf8backed Yes2c650.64$15 inLost-$14.5360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd88e…e6c1backed Yes4c600$22 inLost-$22.21216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-74.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f0…70aabacked Yes4c552.68$23 inLost-$22.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes2c500$10 inLost-$103116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked Yes4c437.85$17 inLost-$17.061040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x46e7…987ebacked Yes3c417.86$12 inLost-$11.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-71.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes4c400$15 inLost-$14.78147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-90.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa40c…8192backed Yes4c388.36$15 inLost-$15.49160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d2c…2436backed Yes3c299.47$10 inLost-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.