TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$204,035
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,035 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x64c6…a070backed Yes2c6,336$133 inLost-$133.352412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9816…cc22backed Yes3c5,502$183 inLost-$182.752010%2 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c4,404$51 inLost-$51.2911011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes2c3,663$67 inLost-$67.336820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes3c2,965$94 inLost-$944032.5%13 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d0…60edbacked Yes4c2,715$100 inLost-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ecc…b46dbacked Yes2c2,500$45 inLost-$45100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd055…515dbacked Yes1c2,018$25 inLost-$251717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa1…1928backed Yes3c1,837$60 inLost-$59.531010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+55.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed Yes1c1,638$12 inLost-$12.022010%2 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf89e…1783backed Yes7c1,487$108 inLost-$108.45100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes3c1,418$45 inLost-$452917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38cb…8e1fbacked Yes3c1,325$42 inLost-$41.87633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes1c1,139$10 inLost-$101216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd64d…722ebacked Yes1c1,027$13 inLost-$12.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes1c1,010$10 inLost-$10.195435.2%19 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x480a…6bf8backed Yes8c985.64$80 inLost-$80.1560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x985a…e9e4backed Yes3c966.13$26 inLost-$26540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+190.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes2c750.11$19 inLost-$18.62128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes7c700$52 inLost-$51.870%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes2c500$10 inLost-$103116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Yes2c500$12 inLost-$11.550%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes6c459.28$25 inLost-$25.44147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-90.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes5c384.44$20 inLost-$201020%2 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+288.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Yes5c262.47$14 inLost-$14.011921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40c…8192backed Yes9c250$21 inLost-$21.25160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.