Chess · resolved market

Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41fb6511efe1de18bd60be3f7a21b55776ebd8de5e502788e325d334ed3983af

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $216,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $162,198

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,078 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9267…0f9abacked Yes	11c	27,312$3,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,098.05	92	47.8%44 W · 48 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ceb…0c87backed Yes	25c	17,453$4,433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,432.7	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes	13c	15,459$2,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,080.36	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes	18c	6,000$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed Yes	14c	3,100$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.06	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-82.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3355…e375backed Yes	11c	2,376$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.62	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc91…8556backed Yes	40c	2,187$873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$873.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…3a31backed Yes	9c	1,720$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.4	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes	7c	1,610$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf89e…1783backed Yes	13c	1,592$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.39	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes	8c	1,500$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes	13c	1,500$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes	21c	1,500$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309	23	13%3 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes	25c	1,358$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.03	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes	14c	1,300$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes	9c	1,283$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes	17c	1,151$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.77	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6704…baa4backed Yes	14c	1,107$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f2b…f448backed Yes	18c	1,090$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5380…28debacked Yes	10c	1,083$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.22	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	33cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed Yes	2c	1,046$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.11	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d4…b609backed Yes	18c	999.99$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd8…8793backed Yes	17c	980.62$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.75	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf786…73ccbacked Yes	6c	899.99$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.3	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes	34c	893.62$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes	7c	878.19$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.34	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	12c	869.31$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.84	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes	14c	820$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.8	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes	25c	799.93$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.98	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ae…36ddbacked Yes	21c	717.21$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7961…2a74backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes	3c	550$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7c…b146backed Yes	24c	543.2$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	59cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes	24c	531.97$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.62	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d6…3e79backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae3…1540backed Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-58.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7997…fc95backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef4…6c83backed Yes	14c	483.68$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.72	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x483e…2d6bbacked Yes	21c	470.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efb…d2aebacked Yes	15c	463.6$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x739e…00fcbacked Yes	15c	450$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.24per pick	43cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No	79c	421.56$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.58	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes	20c	414.01$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.67	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-15%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	17c	412.61$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.96	87	32.2%28 W · 59 L	-10.8wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3a90…ab9dbacked Yes	25c	408.06$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2774…07dfbacked Yes	14c	400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes	25c	352.71$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.57	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76cb…ab4fbacked Yes	14c	346.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes	25c	325.94$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.1	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7e…bf7abacked Yes	14c	321.43$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes	16c	300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x008f…3104backed Yes	24c	295.24$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked No	72c	265.05$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.21	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5a61…eb03backed Yes	14c	259.65$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	16c	228.45$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-12.3wins	-0.16per pick	24cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes	25c	215.86$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.85	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…08a5backed Yes	16c	206.25$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes	27c	199.97$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.99	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed Yes	16c	194.69$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.57	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+55.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38cb…8e1fbacked Yes	11c	189.34$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.83	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+22%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dcb…f7b1backed Yes	13c	180$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a27…eacbbacked Yes	15c	166.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1bb…9f9fbacked Yes	30c	155.62$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes	20c	155$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	20cpaid	-90.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba9…6ba7backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeba1…8598backed Yes	20c	150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64ad…3050backed Yes	15c	145.48$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.82	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	79c	133.33$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	61	37.7%23 W · 38 L	-6.0wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1242…bdadbacked Yes	13c	126.69$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.47	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0faf…7d00backed Yes	31c	108.44$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x825a…c7cbbacked Yes	23c	105.35$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b2…1a38backed Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7614…ca90backed Yes	16c	103.35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66f8…8711backed Yes	18c	103$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2f…a176backed Yes	18c	103$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f5…bc23backed Yes	25c	102.91$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No	80c	101$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.7	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc913…81d6backed Yes	20c	100.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d00…4adbbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…68b0backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa1…1928backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…06b7backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x860a…2e92backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38ef…de5dbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b0…1f4bbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x692b…33d3backed Yes	18c	98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x741f…f6cabacked Yes	26c	96.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba3…5affbacked Yes	19c	96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba74…414bbacked Yes	18c	96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d0e…d1a8backed Yes	28c	93.79$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7025…d180backed Yes	28c	86.46$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc10b…2eecbacked Yes	31c	82.58$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6660…6f10backed No	72c	81.81$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.56	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbc…3a12backed No	77c	78.19$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.19	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?this page
Will Alexander Grischuk win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Ben Finegold win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Daniel Naroditsky win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Levon Aronian win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Olexandr Bortnyk win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Volodar Murzin win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? No won
Will Wei Yi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will Wesley So win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event