Chess · resolved market

Will Daniil Dubov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa58b2c2111e92b2aac84c1bda7312a19e252c2a1ac63fdf127edebbb139fc0b1

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $334,426
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $298,463

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $334,426 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0ca7…31a2backed Yes	0c	23,536$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+5,506%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes	3c	9,209$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.89	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea6…9545backed Yes	2c	8,000$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.01	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	1c	6,895$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.47	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df8…5907backed Yes	2c	6,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c7…246fbacked Yes	1c	5,722$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.04	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	18cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes	0c	5,209$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb7f…1f1ebacked Yes	5c	5,107$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9816…cc22backed Yes	1c	4,383$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.51	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-63.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes	3c	3,969$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.59	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes	3c	2,498$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.96	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-78%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	2c	2,432$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.98	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x369b…5129backed Yes	1c	2,333$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.20per pick	34cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d0…60edbacked Yes	5c	2,125$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	3c	2,038$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.32	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes	2c	2,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e77…f4e2backed Yes	1c	2,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ff7cbacked Yes	2c	1,875$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.65	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ecc…b46dbacked Yes	3c	1,868$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	1c	1,798$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.44	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480a…6bf8backed Yes	3c	1,664$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.49	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa1…1928backed Yes	2c	1,488$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.73	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed Yes	3c	1,368$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.41	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-82.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5396…ded6backed Yes	2c	1,226$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.24	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+5,582.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes	3c	1,180$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.34	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f6…c52abacked Yes	8c	1,040$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…515dbacked Yes	3c	1,017$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes	1c	950.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efb…d2aebacked Yes	3c	912.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes	2c	900$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.18	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab3…9f4dbacked Yes	3c	700$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2499…fed3backed Yes	2c	692.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.61	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes	4c	539.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+205.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40c…8192backed Yes	3c	472$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.34	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b67…584fbacked Yes	5c	442.96$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes	3c	440.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38ef…de5dbacked Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes	4c	275$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadd8…8793backed Yes	4c	259.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d34…17e8backed Yes	5c	257.22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.89	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes	7c	193$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Daniil Dubov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event