TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x369b…5129

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
85
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Dota2, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 54 out of 100; worst Chess at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT248.3%2 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$87
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.26
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.07
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.85
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+2,419.6%+$2,523.62
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.83
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.85
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.02
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.8
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.97
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.03
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.12
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.36
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.47
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.42
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$28.15
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$22.68
All 24 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.6
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+59%+$29.7
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.22
Will Cole Palmer be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.59
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.06
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+151.9%+$46.85
Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4 of EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.86
Will Manchester City win the 2024-25 FA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Arsenal wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.37
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.96
Will Aston Villa win the 2024-25 FA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Newcastle United wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.42
Manchester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.48
Chelsea wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.58
Bournemouth wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Newcastle United win the 2024 Carabao Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$48.3
Will Arsenal win the 2024 Carabao Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2025, EST-100%-$11.6
Will Manchester City win again in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$15.45
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$32.4
All 22 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2025, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-81.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Chess — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+86.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev win the Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$16.8
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Australian Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+61.3%+$7.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.