TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win the 2024 Carabao Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,008 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15af…e753backed No72c10,466$7,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,930.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c9…9eb3backed Yes28c6,800$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf488…6f2bbacked Yes28c3,666$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes9c3,553$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.990751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf348…e2babacked Yes28c2,500$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a83…5bc5backed Yes27c2,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2278…b893backed Yes28c2,300$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x235f…d59dbacked Yes28c2,100$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6672…fbcabacked No72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4072…4ec0backed Yes28c1,900$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f2…f396backed No72c1,900$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…12aebacked Yes28c1,900$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb4…a29dbacked Yes28c1,700$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41c5…cb4fbacked Yes27c1,700$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc57b…8ed7backed Yes26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee8…b37abacked Yes26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa091…564ebacked Yes26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ac…960dbacked Yes26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b6…1117backed No73c1,380$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa285…1623backed No73c1,300$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b6…15febacked No72c1,300$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe611…ac18backed No72c1,200$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607c…34d4backed No73c1,200$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2325…154bbacked No72c1,200$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9de3…b8c0backed No72c1,100$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa63b…e46bbacked No72c1,100$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc465…92bbbacked Yes28c1,100$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f41…bcd6backed No72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2802100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b25…b315backed No72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…383cbacked Yes26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4224…81dbbacked Yes28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b2…f24dbacked No72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2802100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes5c935.91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.182638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x101e…e29abacked Yes28c900$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3d…4992backed No72c900$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4af…269bbacked No72c900$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc05c…3d4cbacked No72c900$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eb0…6c83backed Yes28c900$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c4…1a12backed No73c900$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2432100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed Yes33c812.66$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.483234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…5dd7backed No74c800$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f6a…6b17backed Yes26c800$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x529d…cca9backed No73c800$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88fc…2a65backed No74c800$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d37…729cbacked No74c800$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5147…4f57backed No74c800$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5154…2189backed No72c800$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2242100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8490…351fbacked No74c800$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No66c784.31$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.674211.9%5 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fd…6913backed No74c700$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3e…7d71backed Yes27c700$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e09…e5cdbacked No74c700$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d2…ae86backed No74c700$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d9…d1dabacked No74c700$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1822100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick44cpaid+352.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49b4…a0eebacked Yes27c680$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d6b…23f8backed Yes35c565.77$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0350%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4635…d8b5backed No74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0cb…1331backed No74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13542755%235 W · 192 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes4c475.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.49248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-75.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ece…cff3backed Yes12c423.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.392437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aab…c911backed Yes11c370.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1466031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe4…f393backed Yes12c205.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0902…7752backed Yes10c191.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes35c165.39$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.892445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes10c163.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.632330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes25c163.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7920040.5%81 W · 119 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes7c147.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.333432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No70c145.44$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.274845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2774…07dfbacked Yes37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5cb…27b3backed Yes12c124.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes9c123.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11130%0 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed Yes30c114$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+118.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e6…f3b8backed Yes27c108$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea49…cd24backed Yes35c105$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid+33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbcc…9f32backed Yes11c100.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f67…b8e1backed Yes10c100.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x369b…5129backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307343.8%32 W · 41 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes36c83.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0125329.2%74 W · 179 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf1b…4340backed No66c75.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.831656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaa…5d79backed Yes34c72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x194a…2980backed No66c72$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea85…4229backed No66c71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaa6…a24cbacked Yes34c71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ad…c343backed No66c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac82…396abacked Yes34c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…bee8backed No66c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb1…3291backed Yes34c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73b1…ff76backed No73c66.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb619…ec91backed Yes30c65.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed No72c65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.964447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9383…99e5backed Yes29c64.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd51…b1bfbacked Yes34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc083…0a9bbacked No66c64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be1…bc43backed Yes34c61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3059…e806backed No66c61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4207…e131backed No66c59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ce…c269backed Yes34c59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.