TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,826
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$154,146

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,826 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9267…0f9abacked Yes46c5,447$2,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480.859247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed No48c4,119$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-65.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No62c3,863$2,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.015435.2%19 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No53c3,500$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.052213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed Yes30c2,768$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.83250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes40c2,572$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.511844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ec…f502backed Yes49c1,976$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Yes36c1,958$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No63c1,617$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.283348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed Yes47c1,589$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1975…f07bbacked Yes63c1,429$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes44c1,417$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.31942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked No54c1,416$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.37147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-86.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fac…2b99backed Yes37c1,403$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed No56c1,337$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.551827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-42%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed Yes64c1,258$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.11040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes51c1,200$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.962853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes45c1,101$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.691421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes45c1,100$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked No56c1,062$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.765223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb810…b043backed Yes49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ca7…31a2backed No58c995.62$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.781833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+5,506%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes45c942.86$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.286713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d6…f810backed No61c919.82$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes26c913.65$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.792313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes31c748.29$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.393435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Yes54c737.26$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed No59c711.69$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.185324.5%13 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes41c705.75$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid+66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No53c692.04$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.266137.7%23 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dc7…302dbacked Yes47c685.08$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.821442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb59f…cd73backed Yes42c655.3$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.982236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+66.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes47c642.97$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.541020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid+285.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No57c641.71$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.11346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x321a…b052backed Yes63c584.44$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98f6…79d2backed Yes50c559.62$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb39…c696backed Yes15c555.22$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.71540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes50c548$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27450%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x999e…b3a6backed Yes49c532.27$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes18c521.23$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.742015%3 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid+19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf25…224cbacked Yes55c479.48$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebc…ca61backed Yes39c476.24$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-54.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdebb…19bbbacked Yes62c444$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe60…6eadbacked Yes47c438.52$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.041723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed No56c431.16$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.484122%9 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes50c420.13$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.361118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid+20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc725…34e7backed Yes45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e4a…4b51backed Yes50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee6…caf9backed Yes38c396.89$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed No71c365.38$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.271861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe426…5120backed Yes48c363.02$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa718…8eb5backed No43c348.94$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes45c342.35$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5611011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5995…6ad1backed No38c342$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692030%6 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed No44c295.39$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes34c294.35$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.14358.6%3 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd878…74efbacked Yes54c278.52$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick58cpaid-76.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes45c270$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Yes45c265$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bb…39f3backed Yes42c264.1$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.92922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-67.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c250.03$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.348732.2%28 W · 59 L-10.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed Yes38c245.39$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.971010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes41c241.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002425%6 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b29…d1c9backed Yes43c240$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8e…62bebacked No42c237.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes55c235.02$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.033540%14 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4a0…d428backed Yes48c222.46$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd4…af2ebacked Yes45c221.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ab…33c1backed Yes46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb018…8891backed Yes46c215.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed No67c203.51$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.82412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea0a…832abacked No74c200.45$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…2858backed No52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x373c…05e9backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes43c200$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…b407backed Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed Yes57c198.25$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1132010%2 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e54…c8ccbacked Yes48c190.09$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.241030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe63c…5becbacked No54c184.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa41…47e7backed No55c182.63$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff8…1aacbacked Yes48c181.94$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x257c…49aabacked Yes36c179.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba5…f5cbbacked Yes51c177.66$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a2…eff7backed Yes50c169.72$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc64…1cacbacked Yes51c168.28$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb69…5203backed Yes62c168.02$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5b…b250backed Yes60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98b2…e45cbacked Yes47c166.19$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb288…c3f5backed Yes60c166.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40fa…fb9fbacked No54c164.38$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2943…34dcbacked No54c164.35$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb33c…7f1ebacked No52c163.64$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65cc…b944backed No50c163.45$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1180…bfd5backed Yes31c163.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2837…184fbacked No59c163.16$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e81…5832backed Yes48c162.13$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked No50c161.35$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.796820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.