TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,546

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,627 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17ed…c087backed Yes14c1,302$176 inLost-$175.995435.2%19 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes8c1,181$99 inLost-$98.662412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost-$901625%4 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdea8…b7a8backed Yes11c906.36$98 inLost-$9830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes8c647.79$55 inLost-$54.66713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes8c535$44 inLost-$43.696820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes10c508.5$50 inLost-$50.23010%3 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+264.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes2c500$10 inLost-$10825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-48%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes9c500$45 inLost-$45147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-86.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed Yes10c464.32$46 inLost-$45.51010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d83…f3e9backed Yes10c450$45 inLost-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes9c320.75$28 inLost-$27.914122%9 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes8c299.95$24 inLost-$2450%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$201827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-42%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes8c200$16 inLost-$16.31428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed Yes9c153.02$14 inLost-$14.3156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd0…955fbacked Yes10c138$14 inLost-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ad…bac8backed Yes11c136.91$15 inLost-$14.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf892…23a5backed Yes10c108.7$11 inLost-$10.871030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f2…b499backed Yes11c100$11 inLost-$11520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e3…e7ebbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.