TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,202 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes30c8,359$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487.0280%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes13c3,300$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7d…2040backed Yes50c2,448$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.2150%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes27c2,005$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.133348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes41c2,000$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes36c1,917$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.65435.2%19 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb30c…7ab2backed Yes30c1,729$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes22c1,522$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.096820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed Yes18c1,140$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.141010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb810…b043backed Yes13c818.81$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c0…deabbacked Yes33c707.83$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes30c686.33$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.721118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid+20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed No71c607.62$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.063100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes10c581.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes13c559.83$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.622015%3 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid+19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64ad…3050backed Yes27c480.73$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.392626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed No77c442.2$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.32010%2 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2e…6856backed Yes19c400$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-84.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes10c386.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.254122%9 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes21c380.17$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.28540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1a2d…f033backed Yes31c340$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf25…224cbacked Yes16c310.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.73520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes7c296.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes19c291$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.29616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f6…037cbacked Yes32c277.13$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes37c272.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x369b…5129backed Yes15c272$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.29714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-81.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aea…abf1backed No72c261.08$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked No70c261.03$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.065223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0277…dc5dbacked Yes18c260$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea0a…832abacked Yes49c252.12$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04c3…8637backed Yes10c250.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257c…49aabacked Yes22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0503…8b4ebacked No40c233.63$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc7…302dbacked Yes13c232.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.671442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes8c228.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.291346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes18c223.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402425%6 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364010%4 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98f6…79d2backed Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d1…dee6backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402030%6 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No71c166$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd878…74efbacked Yes62c161.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick58cpaid-76.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked Yes19c155.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes26c153.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e9b3backed Yes63c145.56$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21bb…4ce4backed Yes30c140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+72.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d6…f810backed Yes12c132.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38ef…de5dbacked Yes11c129.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.05812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-83.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes14c127.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-48%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes16c121.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.161136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed Yes18c102$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.78156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked No75c102$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.93650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301625%4 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x712c…de39backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f2…b499backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d4d…8368backed Yes61c96.72$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7167…8ea3backed Yes11c96.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c4…1478backed Yes59c84.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ead…3381backed Yes63c84.31$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe03d…189abacked Yes64c81.39$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9450%0 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xed8b…e440backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe60…6eadbacked Yes32c76.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.191723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc4a…13a9backed Yes15c73.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f63…e7cebacked Yes28c71.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d23…e530backed Yes31c67.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9998…e858backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2837…184fbacked Yes58c50.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e6b…a799backed No39c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.71275%9 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+35.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x214d…e581backed Yes64c49.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3075…f9eebacked Yes26c44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b0a…1d3ebacked Yes25c44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e6…54e8backed Yes64c43.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabd5…2901backed No71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f63…a43dbacked No40c41.05$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x736b…ea91backed No40c40.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfabb…93eabacked Yes63c39.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0a…ed0cbacked No42c39.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3567…decfbacked No35c39.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34df…47f6backed Yes61c37.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f45…f38ebacked Yes63c37.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51c4…7714backed Yes32c37.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ff…12ffbacked No39c36.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4866…9ba3backed No40c36.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…20bfbacked Yes67c36.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc3…4036backed Yes61c35.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2306…bec3backed No71c35.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe858…70b9backed No37c34.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d0…cb5abacked No37c33.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5280…0068backed No38c32.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f4…b94abacked Yes61c31.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ceb…d155backed Yes63c31.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c7…4411backed No37c31.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+115.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d60…488abacked Yes64c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb237…39e1backed No35c30.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1965…4b83backed Yes64c30.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac9…c291backed No36c30.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a9…f16cbacked No38c30.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.