TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,889 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7efa…acbebacked Yes3c30,000$750 inLost-$75010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes4c6,789$300 inLost-$300.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-65.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes6c1,200$73 inLost-$72.846820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes8c901.89$71 inLost-$70.866713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed Yes6c698.78$42 inLost-$41.641010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes8c500$40 inLost-$403010%3 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+264.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes7c452.25$30 inLost-$302425%6 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x390d…350bbacked Yes15c424.01$65 inLost-$64.75837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes9c346.96$30 inLost-$29.944122%9 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes5c288.8$14 inLost-$14.421717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes8c262.69$21 inLost-$21.011346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes8c199.98$16 inLost-$1650%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes8c177.1$14 inLost-$14.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf25…224cbacked Yes11c150$17 inLost-$16.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f2…b499backed Yes14c100$14 inLost-$13.8520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.