TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x64ad…3050

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
341
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Dota2, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST12361.8%76 W · 47 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 123 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Gen.G vs Vietnam (BO1)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$494Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$493.75
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Cloud9 (BO1)backed Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$39.15
LoL: Cloud9 vs Gen.G (BO1)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$73.52
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO1)backed G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+47.2%+$234.2
LoL: Los Ratones vs Karmine Corp (BO1)backed Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+42.1%+$118.45
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$17
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,378Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+36.2%+$1,222.15
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+85.2%+$46
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+100.4%+$169.31
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+102.7%+$104.4
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+136%+$461
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$4.69
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.85
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,147Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+56.9%+$653
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.72
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$171
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+37.7%+$119.91
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3)backed FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$426.88
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$138
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,699.98
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO1)backed G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$623Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+64%+$398.65
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,573Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+60.6%+$2,165.89
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1)backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,717Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,716.83
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Los Ratones (BO5)backed Vitality.Bee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$105.7
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO5)backed Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$316.2
Showing 25 of 123 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST8055%44 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 80 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$141
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$222
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3)backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$73
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+107.4%+$196.8
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3)backed FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+40.8%+$40.6
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+88.7%+$66.74
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$216
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO1)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+44.9%+$155
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1)backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+42.9%+$45
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3)backed M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3)backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$372
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Passion UA (BO3)backed fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$130
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winnerbacked fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+56.2%+$8.23
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs Astralis (BO3)backed Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+53.8%+$175
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs The Huns Esports (BO3)backed Imperial · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$890Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+49.3%+$438.57
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3)backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$360
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Lynn Vision (BO3)backed Lynn Vision · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$21.76
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO1)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$310.65
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Lynn Vision (BO1)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+44.9%+$31.62
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Fluxo (BO1)backed GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$70.38
Counter-Strike: NIP vs NRG (BO1)backed NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$33.03
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1)backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$180
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+63.9%+$15.6
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs paiN (BO3)backed paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+85.2%+$9.2
Showing 25 of 80 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST2626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemannbacked Niemann · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$46.72
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.96
Will Hans Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$222.61
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$522Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT+128%+$668.1
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+43.7%+$29.74
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.28
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$237.6
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$641Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+65.7%+$420.98
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.11
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$128.39
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+36.9%+$86.64
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$84.76
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$241.75
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$284.38
Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$24.41
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$21.82
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$15.61
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+38.9%+$36.28
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$40
Will Alireza Firouzja win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$278.98
CCT Semis: Firouzja vs. Nepomniachtchibacked Firouzja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$67.45
Will Wesley So win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST-100%-$34.44
Will Ding Liren win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$611Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST+185.7%+$1,134.4
Will Game 12 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST-100%-$19.73
Will Game 9 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$742Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2024, EST-100%-$741.73
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$175.16
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+171.4%+$418.51
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$119.75
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+128.5%+$127.89
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+175.5%+$975.94
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.6
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.85
Will the U.S. invade Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.64
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+452.1%+$228
Will the U.S. strike Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$480
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$235.77
US military action against Iran by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+880.4%+$518.84
US military action against Iran before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$192.3
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$647Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$647.29
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.24
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$26.58
Gold missing from Fort Knox?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+25%+$10
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$529
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$47.24
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$11.02
All 24 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$453
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.13
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,633Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+32.5%+$856.89
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.98
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$157.03
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.2
Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$141.79
Israel strike on Iran on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$123.05
Israel strike on Iran on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.48
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$228.29
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$3,536Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+112.1%+$3,964.16
Israel announces end of military operations against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.65
Israel strikes Iranian oil in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.63
Israel military action against Iraq by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.5
Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+86.3%+$366.28
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,188Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+43.9%+$1,401.12
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.99
Israel military action against Iran before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.57
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$237.84
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$309
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.96
Will Hamas allow IDF to remain in Gaza?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+35.1%+$96.44
All 22 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$51
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+72.4%+$168
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+25%+$10
Will Leicester vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$24.15
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$13.67
Will Manchester City vs. Chelsea end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+40.8%+$25.98
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$135.88
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+566.7%+$85
Will Manchester City vs. West Ham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$14
All 12 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST5100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckleybacked Usman · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+239.5%+$61.08
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Maverickbacked Namajunas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$16.5
Cannonier vs. Rodriguesbacked Rodrigues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$30.45
All 3 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Sep 23, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-55.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bills vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.65
Bills vs. Falconsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
Rams vs. Ravensbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,170Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+33%+$386.45
All 3 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,363Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+141.9%+$3,354.17
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$115.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grizzlies vs. Celticsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.23
Will Lebron tweet again in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+61.3%+$39.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+37%+$12.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ye divorce before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+29%+$22.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scotland vs. Denmark end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$285.98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.