Us Politics · resolved market
US military action against Iran before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bb02509cac2580d4b13ab17cef450011997faf52882059ca9a9611e374c210a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,199,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,296,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,199,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 821 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 37c | 52,611$19,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,402.3 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 69c | 47,109$32,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,560.16 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce41…fa02backed Yes | 61c | 44,938$27,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,701.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +271.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 78c | 39,830$30,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,919.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 33c | 38,483$12,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,751.17 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…ac10backed Yes | 66c | 37,566$24,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,926.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…8643backed No | 38c | 29,213$11,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 27c | 27,038$7,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,291.84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 65c | 24,596$15,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,647.34 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 28c | 21,575$5,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,957.52 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…85c0backed Yes | 62c | 20,000$12,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,600 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…4946backed No | 35c | 19,945$6,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,938.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 52c | 19,269$10,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,187.36 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6c…5ba4backed Yes | 76c | 19,126$14,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,663.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 66c | 17,577$11,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,890.73 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2689…1eb4backed Yes | 64c | 17,190$11,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,145.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 52c | 15,104$7,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,850.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 48c | 13,172$6,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,799.38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…11dcbacked No | 38c | 13,065$5,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,015.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 41c | 12,696$5,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,246.02 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9206…5b3ebacked No | 38c | 11,014$4,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,185.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 50c | 10,449$5,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,190.51 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 58c | 9,282$5,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,860.21 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 43c | 9,187$3,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,977.01 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…1fbabacked Yes | 76c | 8,797$6,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,155.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd1…500dbacked No | 29c | 8,270$2,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,366.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 56c | 8,034$4,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,508.46 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…1411backed Yes | 76c | 8,003$6,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…f3b0backed Yes | 62c | 7,982$4,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec79…11ffbacked No | 27c | 7,894$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a32…f709backed No | 64c | 7,756$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4949…d3b8backed Yes | 56c | 7,725$4,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,413.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed Yes | 60c | 7,708$4,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,084.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…3a84backed No | 13c | 7,450$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 13c | 6,646$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.97 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…3a00backed Yes | 63c | 6,562$4,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…4231backed Yes | 54c | 6,508$3,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,009.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +673.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed No | 61c | 6,283$3,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,806.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 56c | 6,000$3,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,627.79 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 28c | 5,811$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.67 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 32c | 5,803$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.65 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa56…f232backed No | 35c | 5,707$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 32c | 5,439$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.91 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 65c | 5,357$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 65c | 5,354$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,858.21 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 49c | 5,300$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…c200backed Yes | 74c | 5,285$3,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes | 65c | 5,073$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d7…9d1cbacked Yes | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 62c | 5,000$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,095.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 78c | 5,000$3,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.32 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 4,990$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…cb9abacked No | 40c | 4,983$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 39c | 4,926$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.31 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 53c | 4,750$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…d4b6backed No | 16c | 4,673$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 39c | 4,400$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 54c | 4,363$2,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,353.32 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 70c | 4,336$3,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 55c | 4,275$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 55c | 4,265$2,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.18 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…7690backed Yes | 76c | 4,225$3,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 75c | 4,217$3,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.77 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 31c | 4,050$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.64 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 66c | 4,042$2,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.52 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 26c | 4,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 61c | 3,878$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.83 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 54c | 3,798$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.82 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…9be0backed Yes | 67c | 3,720$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 3,719$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.37 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked No | 18c | 3,666$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.64 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f2…4460backed No | 39c | 3,635$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +309.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…7046backed No | 39c | 3,618$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 19c | 3,549$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.52 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…b4aabacked No | 10c | 3,402$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 47c | 3,398$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.46 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaf…f121backed No | 26c | 3,396$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d81…25a5backed Yes | 69c | 3,336$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…f397backed Yes | 45c | 3,335$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 36c | 3,295$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.15 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 64c | 3,250$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.23 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…62e2backed No | 57c | 3,210$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 37c | 3,186$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.04 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 17c | 3,133$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.51 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 38c | 3,049$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.02 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 47c | 3,029$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.66 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcffb…a6bebacked Yes | 48c | 3,002$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed No | 25c | 3,000$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.08 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…3187backed Yes | 71c | 2,984$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…d58fbacked Yes | 59c | 2,889$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.82 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 38c | 2,820$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.2 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked No | 47c | 2,813$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.6 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 53c | 2,771$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.3 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 65c | 2,770$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f6…eb35backed Yes | 65c | 2,724$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 37c | 2,676$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 41c | 2,491$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.32 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 33c | 2,450$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.23 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.