TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Ye divorce before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,238

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7853…36d8backed Yes27c7,701$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.586533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b2a…25d5backed Yes60c7,304$4,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,396.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes1c4,559$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No71c4,306$3,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.241650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+59.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes15c4,011$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd653…ba9abacked No77c3,987$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No11c3,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,669.99742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+87.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No78c2,404$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.253534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7feb…6612backed Yes11c1,882$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes69c1,746$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9450…ef38backed Yes12c1,642$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe2f6…1493backed No78c1,618$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No69c1,537$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes28c1,359$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+41.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes8c1,297$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes22c1,145$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes10c1,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.29825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No75c1,000$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No80c1,000$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.83366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick79cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes8c1,000$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba95…908fbacked Yes7c916.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes29c839$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.484461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes10c821$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.41per pick16cpaid+178.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51f7…590bbacked Yes6c804.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes5c783.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No25c720$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No77c715.06$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa2b…5b75backed No78c700$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce5…86e1backed Yes2c694.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes5c671.96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.91735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes7c618.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes20c617.21$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.534615.2%7 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No7c555.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.392254.5%12 W · 10 L+6.4wins+0.29per pick26cpaid+157.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb406…ebaabacked Yes19c532.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2588…dc27backed Yes30c506.17$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd182…8921backed Yes12c502$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed Yes32c501.55$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc354…de11backed No73c499.76$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d8…61bcbacked No71c493.8$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes28c484.91$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4914938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes32c464.81$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3832…7044backed Yes26c459.05$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.06728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5c…7560backed Yes7c372.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08f4…7700backed Yes5c369.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-85.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf54e…0950backed No75c328.53$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes7c299.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5666…2d90backed No79c295.54$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes11c275.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.692213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+101.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe067…b980backed Yes8c261.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee85…7777backed Yes8c261.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb427…047ebacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b7…d63cbacked Yes4c246.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes25c241.76$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.51533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabbd…322ebacked Yes14c233.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5d…553cbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.41833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed No71c200$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…b571backed Yes26c195.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f7…9c2fbacked No74c179.49$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebda…294ebacked Yes7c160.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2533…926ebacked Yes23c153.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes17c150.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.981216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x018d…7f0abacked No72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e3…abb8backed Yes40c143.94$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2142…b083backed Yes28c143.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d52…c840backed Yes26c141.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes25c137.88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.28520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0277…dc5dbacked Yes15c133.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb583…35d9backed No77c130.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+71.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes12c125.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3053…ae11backed No77c120$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No70c118.38$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.114731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No31c117.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.77785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+95.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes26c113.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5116334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e28…cfafbacked No77c112$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28c2…0fb6backed No62c103.6$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.63935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f48…c790backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ad…3050backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes30c95.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes22c88.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.65210%0 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75bc…a734backed Yes34c85.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes18c81.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156435.9%23 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+37.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6ed…d4e3backed Yes25c80.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7d…928abacked Yes26c78.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e1f…aa60backed Yes26c77.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1602…cbf7backed No79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c4…b8dcbacked Yes32c61.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d7…5672backed No71c60.56$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked No70c58.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee7…7254backed No71c56.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e0…e597backed Yes28c54.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d9f…9e97backed Yes32c51.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0647…8f61backed Yes29c44.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7d…ac4bbacked No70c42.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed No53c41.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.46475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0afc…1aeabacked Yes32c31.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.