TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfd50…c17b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,261
Categories scored
41
Categories below 50
22

Best Category: Middle East, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 61 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT20443.6%89 W · 115 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 204 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+1,438.5%+$280.5
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.1
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.58
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+594.4%+$171.2
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$583Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$582.86
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$71
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+110.1%+$300.61
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.76
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.6
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.33
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.9
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+80.2%+$89
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+68.1%+$8.1
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$42.79
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$59
OKC breaks NBA single-season wins record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Kings vs. Trail Blazersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$62
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$121
Cavaliers vs. Bullsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$81.96
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+174%+$127
Showing 25 of 204 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT17524.6%43 W · 132 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 175 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.14
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.74
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+425%+$65.89
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.75
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+970.5%+$128.42
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$75
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will there be no coalition by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$76.44
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$43.3
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$53
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+218.3%+$125.5
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,027Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$1,027.39
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$22
North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$46
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+197%+$66.34
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+56.4%+$216.33
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$925Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+59.9%+$554.35
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$46
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+103.4%+$183.12
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$150.93
Showing 25 of 175 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST16319%31 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 163 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$79
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$31.4
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+132.6%+$22.8
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+42.9%+$30
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$21.68
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$21.4
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$18.8
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$57
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$59
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$56
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$25.33
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$22.21
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+462.5%+$113.06
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$61
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+70.9%+$20.75
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+27.3%+$74.97
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$12.9
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$11.1
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$11.6
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$37
Showing 25 of 163 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST12533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 125 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$546Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$545.81
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+42.9%+$30
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+56.2%+$143.99
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+34.2%+$25.51
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+95.6%+$97.71
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+37.3%+$135.82
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+33.7%+$100.94
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+29.4%+$45.5
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+183.4%+$73.01
Trump enacts a de minimis crypto tax exemption before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.41
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.8%+$5.24
Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$53.9
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$21
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.22
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$83
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$373.47
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.6
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$187.23
Showing 25 of 125 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT8351.8%43 W · 40 L+10.8wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+47.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 83 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+102%+$50.5
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+96.2%+$59.15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+144.6%+$354.67
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+525%+$168
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$106.95
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+178.5%+$162.76
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$31.77
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+284.6%+$74
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$69.33
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$63
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$65
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+325.5%+$76.5
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+412.8%+$80.5
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$406.96
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$121.05
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$21.79
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+379.3%+$79.13
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+121.7%+$274.27
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$131.74
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+47.5%+$12.17
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+198.5%+$254.21
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$46.22
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$79
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$37
Showing 25 of 83 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT7024.3%17 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-35.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 70 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$450.99
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.47
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$83.76
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+379.5%+$51.84
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$65
X relaunches Vine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+48.2%+$32.14
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.55
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.34
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.38
Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$64.25
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.24
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50.25
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$80.18
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$285.99
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+73.4%+$24.64
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+61.3%+$43.33
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$61.67
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$44.41
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,042Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+41.9%+$437.02
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$31.14
Showing 25 of 70 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT4126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-60%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.78
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.2
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$311.31
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.7
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.15
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$233.68
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.54
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$39
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$33.75
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.13
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.83
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.54
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$87
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$306
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$28.4
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,484Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+36.5%+$541.51
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+33.1%+$94.76
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+63.9%+$39
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+36.6%+$109.35
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$30.04
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$179.1
Harmonix FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.1
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$584Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+42.1%+$245.63
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST3727%10 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$258.53
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$21.03
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+294.5%+$197.69
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$441Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+81.4%+$358.82
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$115.06
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$117.75
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.73
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76.29
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.33
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+127.3%+$56
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$82.24
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+44.2%+$6.13
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$30.3
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+757.8%+$534.46
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$43.4
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$865Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+50.3%+$435.12
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.53
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.2
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.59
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+90.7%+$108.76
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$154.78
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$628.15
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$240.01
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$878Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+97%+$851.47
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3023.3%7 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-56.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.64
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.65
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.59
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.63
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90.02
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.43
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.79
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110.14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.54
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$51
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+41.6%+$43.91
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+29.4%+$22.75
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Russia announces air truce by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+59.7%+$81.65
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.04
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.57
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$260.21
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.95
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$172.38
Nothing Ever Happens backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+108.9%+$107.96
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST2924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+72.1%+$41.9
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$55.1
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+533.5%+$303.34
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$233.25
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$146.58
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$32.22
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$17.2
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$76.13
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$170
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$26.99
Will the Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$119.47
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$63.49
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$109.8
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$12.7
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$52.98
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$29
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$12.1
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+28.8%+$67
Will Jaxson Dart get drafted by the Giants?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.6
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+53.6%+$17.45
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+120.5%+$17.95
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$731Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$730.8
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST2817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$98
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$855Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+204.9%+$1,752.18
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+484.7%+$243.04
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.42
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 American League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.75
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+156.3%+$320.84
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.99
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.68
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.5
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.1
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$76.76
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.5
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 American League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$37
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 American League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.7
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.52
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.3
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$132.23
Will the New York Yankees win the AL East Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+73.9%+$42.5
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.69
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 American League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.08
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.38
Will the Texas Rangers win the AL West Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$203.01
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90.6
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.4
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.9
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.6
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$258
Will Solana reach $250 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.21
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$77
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.4
Ethereum all time high by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.19
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.16
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.67
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.3
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.91
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.6
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.35
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.98
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$86
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST2445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
F1 — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$131.8
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$623Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$623.32
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,507Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+142.4%+$2,145.24
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+969.9%+$262.34
Will Lando Norris finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+71.9%+$127.07
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$71.28
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.71
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$161.98
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.64
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+67.1%+$84.36
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+48.1%+$64.99
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+25%+$20
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+61.7%+$45
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+79.5%+$61.43
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+166.7%+$125
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+604.2%+$428.98
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.98
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.88
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$79
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+72.4%+$21
All 24 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.52
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$589Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$588.93
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+373%+$201.8
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.33
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,770Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+52.7%+$932.67
Will A Minecraft Movie be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$163.33
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$349.1
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.1
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$536Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+100.4%+$538.21
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$131.09
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$156.62
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$187.17
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$26
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.48
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.1
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$148.49
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$41
Will "Porcelain War" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $35-40m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $30-35m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$26.11
All 24 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+177.8%+$128.01
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$134.42
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$378.74
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$12.7
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.74
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.47
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.67
Will Coco Gauff win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Swiss Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$26
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.69
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.1
Will Belinda Bencic win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.15
Will Aryna Sabalenka win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.19
Will Iga Swiatek win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.58
Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$152.44
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.7
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+53.6%+$31.59
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+109.1%+$343.35
French Open: Sabalenka vs. Gauffbacked Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+300%+$150
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.47
All 21 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.6
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.4
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.2
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.58
Will Innsbruck host Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.87
Will Graz host Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Will Vienna host Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.42
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$28.75
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+345.4%+$931.26
Will Sweden be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$40.05
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.16
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.11
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$30
Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+240.7%+$202.81
Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.24
Will Netherlands finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$31.05
Ye divorce before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.4
All 18 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.48
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.24
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+622.1%+$823.6
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$261.28
Will Leon Draisaitl win the Hart Trophy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+99.2%+$25.23
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$217.65
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$324.61
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$156.86
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.11
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.51
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.14
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$106.8
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.9
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 President’s Trophy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.3
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 President’s Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$181.53
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 President’s Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.33
Canucks vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$194
All 18 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.5
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+745.1%+$352.66
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.4
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.14
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.6
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$45
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.16
Champions League Final: 3+ goals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milanbacked PSG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+70.9%+$36.65
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$158.28
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.61
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$104.83
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.5
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.71
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.71
All 16 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST1457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+74%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+37%+$54
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$281.84
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+78.6%+$88
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+147.7%+$178.93
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+308.2%+$226.5
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+654.7%+$173.5
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+83.1%+$140.27
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$90.47
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+269.7%+$288.32
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.7%+$7.61
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$317.13
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$26.73
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$38
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$34.78
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+43.5%+$60.67
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+38.2%+$27.66
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 55% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+143.9%+$59
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$52.2
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$13.3
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+27.5%+$23.7
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$82.16
All 13 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST1323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+63.9%+$40.76
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$22.71
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+384.3%+$158.7
Will Hans Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$125
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.63
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.9
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.62
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$42.97
All 13 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
UFC — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Park vs. Aliskerovbacked Park · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Barnett vs. Abdelwahabbacked Barnett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylovbacked Kopylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull backed Ige · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Garciabacked Kattar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.25
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalenabacked Muhammad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$127
Shevchenko vs. Fiorotbacked Fiorot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$158
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopesbacked Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$168
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblettbacked Chandler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$82
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbullbacked Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+68.8%+$96.08
Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyesbacked Krylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.5
Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodsonbacked Ige · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$64
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Ankalaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$51
All 13 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-83.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+103.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Golf — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+67.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+138.1%+$58
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2backed Dubois · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.61
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.