TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,868,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,861,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,868,530 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 891 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb6c1…1bf6backed Yes47c169,910$79,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,653.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes39c162,446$63,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,966.9111230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Yes46c130,449$59,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,451.08475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a55…f9bebacked No56c116,522$65,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,252.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes35c103,447$36,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,780.654040%16 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked No55c73,000$40,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,149.91225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-58.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes37c58,175$21,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,676.341,18848.9%581 W · 607 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Yes71c50,616$35,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,803.3110845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Yes43c44,719$19,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,577.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Yes36c44,595$15,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,741.13728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba1e…b0b4backed Yes46c42,954$19,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,981.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2131…aaf2backed No56c42,692$23,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,907.77650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yes35c40,965$14,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,618.343336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes37c37,250$13,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,438.433458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes38c29,000$10,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,0903429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1057…9ea5backed No54c29,000$15,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,66040%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes36c28,631$10,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,190.365545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95fa…bf65backed Yes56c26,979$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,979.281833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes35c24,641$8,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,119.015950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes35c20,704$7,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,485.7422037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes34c20,019$6,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,129.1452750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a05…5c62backed Yes44c19,489$8,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,913.952653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes33c19,467$6,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,953.118023.8%19 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Yes45c17,181$7,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,526.213452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No16c17,081$2,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,763.1665242.8%279 W · 373 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes42c16,520$6,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,521.88850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd581…2b59backed Yes58c16,207$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,806.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes36c15,519$5,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,886.3128828.5%82 W · 206 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87c6…89b7backed Yes34c14,706$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,705.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+109.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Yes69c14,121$9,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,311.8311852.5%62 W · 56 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Yes35c14,000$4,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,123.3316140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b7c…ef52backed Yes77c13,510$10,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,061.32657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes47c13,303$6,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,050.777062.9%44 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes44c12,000$5,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,72015832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes36c11,641$4,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,493.774030%12 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a26…3e82backed Yes38c10,960$4,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,786.273100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+99.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes44c10,454$4,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,824.044047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f41…4fa2backed Yes62c10,324$6,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,882.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfffa…864bbacked No71c10,280$7,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,294.04955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes35c10,248$3,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,625.71533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x461c…9b4ebacked Yes34c10,210$3,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,738.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes38c10,061$3,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,284.91855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No65c10,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5009137.4%34 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Yes38c9,033$3,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,629.826045.4%118 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Yes36c8,525$3,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,462.237028.6%20 W · 50 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Yes47c8,510$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,510.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb724…2ccabacked Yes37c8,284$3,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,222.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes35c7,371$2,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,775.3745737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked No53c7,000$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,709.997655.3%42 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Yes33c6,848$2,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,588.8730847.7%147 W · 161 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed Yes36c6,758$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,297.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+174.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Yes60c6,671$3,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,685.6228042.9%120 W · 160 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes52c6,655$3,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,194.74933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No61c6,418$3,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,895.390%0 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No31c6,378$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.8511,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d28…8b16backed No63c6,349$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Yes46c6,232$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,351.7128350.9%144 W · 139 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed Yes47c6,171$2,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,270.831758.8%10 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes34c5,949$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,948.588650%43 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Yes36c5,795$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,725.642360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+48.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1918…e45cbacked Yes35c5,779$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,782.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+189.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Yes32c5,628$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,839.753537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes33c5,569$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,752.5212954.3%70 W · 59 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf997…3146backed Yes45c5,516$2,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27a9…8781backed Yes37c5,512$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,472.3215439.6%61 W · 93 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3baf…1579backed Yes46c5,430$2,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,932.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab33…4aaabacked Yes40c5,304$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,182.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes57c5,272$3,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,251.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No38c5,094$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No67c5,088$3,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,407.358052.5%42 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes37c5,017$1,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,168.1822344.8%100 W · 123 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Yes37c5,000$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1502733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes54c4,879$2,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,256.4512849.2%63 W · 65 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…e4a1backed Yes60c4,765$2,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,917.44443.2%19 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes44c4,740$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,652.985639.3%22 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+145.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes42c4,324$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.918241.5%34 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Yes36c4,000$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5701942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed No23c3,914$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.22450%12 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes41c3,855$1,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,290.7512050%60 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes32c3,845$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,632.182751.9%14 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes40c3,750$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.512552.8%66 W · 59 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe14…a1aebacked Yes30c3,684$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,578.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+103.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes31c3,665$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,528.93837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes39c3,585$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.281225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa9…e31fbacked Yes37c3,512$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,212.65633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Yes37c3,470$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.31225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d40…ec52backed Yes54c3,440$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes47c3,373$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.99546.3%44 W · 51 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Yes42c3,227$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.5937540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes35c3,174$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.291861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3088…ec44backed Yes42c3,100$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb2…6b94backed Yes36c3,073$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.047041.4%29 W · 41 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Yes65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick71cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59017823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Yes45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6503158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed Yes35c2,900$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes39c2,831$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.523745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa924…9c72backed Yes53c2,807$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.042737%10 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Yes36c2,727$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.331060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No58c2,645$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.5965647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.