TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$110,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,302 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes4c32,087$1,130 inLost-$1,129.7928828.5%82 W · 206 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes3c9,941$296 inLost-$296.0211927.7%33 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1e…a91fbacked Yes3c4,205$146 inLost-$146110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes4c3,765$135 inLost-$135.042751.9%14 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes4c3,529$141 inLost-$141.068023.8%19 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11bb…3a09backed Yes3c2,865$100 inLost-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes4c2,300$85 inLost-$85.4652750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes2c2,002$36 inLost-$35.836524.6%16 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes2c2,000$36 inLost-$364934.7%17 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e4e…62d5backed Yes3c1,472$50 inLost-$502035%7 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-31.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x55fd…2c99backed Yes4c1,357$50 inLost-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbf…f580backed Yes2c1,123$28 inLost-$27.68110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes5c1,080$52 inLost-$52.341,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes3c998.99$30 inLost-$29.97933.2%3 W · 90 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c800.73$29 inLost-$28.782,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes3c757.19$26 inLost-$26.46728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick11cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Yes3c664.86$19 inLost-$19.03714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-51.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebf…ab91backed Yes3c650.63$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e2…6808backed Yes3c500$13 inLost-$12.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5590…7e27backed Yes3c491$12 inLost-$12.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes4c471.41$20 inLost-$20.338640.7%35 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b1…5a9bbacked Yes4c465.3$17 inLost-$17.09616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes3c400$13 inLost-$13.412737%47 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dad…bbe0backed Yes3c360$10 inLost-$10.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ad…c882backed Yes3c336$11 inLost-$10.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53e…4ad7backed Yes3c334$11 inLost-$10.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Yes4c300$11 inLost-$10.847058.5%275 W · 195 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73c1…4030backed Yes8c254.58$20 inLost-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.