TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 US Open?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$747,691
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $747,691 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x454c…bd22backed Yes0c106,460$345 inLost-$345.04933.2%3 W · 90 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…1208backed Yes1c67,249$400 inLost-$399.852416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-75.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3fbf…f580backed Yes0c62,089$130 inLost-$129.67110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa9…e31fbacked Yes1c49,380$500 inLost-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05b6…fa9dbacked Yes1c33,441$295 inLost-$29510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes0c33,336$138 inLost-$137.7860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb0…bfc1backed Yes1c32,145$247 inLost-$247.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes0c24,973$83 inLost-$82.966524.6%16 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes0c17,500$70 inLost-$705617.9%10 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a41…d1fbbacked Yes1c17,458$117 inLost-$117175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-83.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033b…2f6bbacked Yes1c17,238$135 inLost-$134.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9682…738bbacked Yes0c16,544$24 inLost-$23.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes0c13,542$40 inLost-$40.4728828.5%82 W · 206 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c71…2090backed Yes1c10,000$67 inLost-$67.430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes0c10,000$40 inLost-$40244.2%1 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb09…c152backed Yes1c8,904$67 inLost-$67.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb375…f802backed Yes1c8,038$48 inLost-$48.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e93…69d5backed Yes0c7,564$33 inLost-$331030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c6,694$16 inLost-$15.71480%0 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0850…cb8cbacked Yes0c6,299$30 inLost-$307330.1%22 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe267…5295backed Yes1c5,714$40 inLost-$402123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaac3…c2c2backed Yes1c4,986$25 inLost-$24.93520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes0c4,328$13 inLost-$12.7470%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3df…d969backed Yes0c4,212$17 inLost-$16.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a4…4e26backed Yes0c4,000$16 inLost-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x654b…c791backed Yes1c3,459$20 inLost-$202010%2 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b713backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost-$1270%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x623a…5e86backed Yes1c2,820$17 inLost-$16.92728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick13cpaid-29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8161…e08ebacked Yes1c2,604$20 inLost-$2014553.1%77 W · 68 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x060f…3c0ebacked Yes1c1,250$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b9…403dbacked Yes1c1,159$17 inLost-$16.692213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.