TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 US Open?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$650,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,335

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $650,901 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc56f…75efbacked Yes2c220,041$4,579 inLost-$4,578.694330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…b5a8backed Yes1c105,555$1,170 inLost-$1,1701822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes1c70,058$436 inLost-$436.368023.8%19 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…1208backed Yes1c30,181$364 inLost-$364.482416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-75.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes0c25,769$104 inLost-$104.13933.2%3 W · 90 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a41…d1fbbacked Yes0c20,384$100 inLost-$100175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-83.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Yes1c18,398$104 inLost-$103.532050%160 W · 160 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Yes2c11,978$259 inLost-$259.4823429.9%70 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd0a…c642backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes1c8,000$96 inLost-$968640.7%35 W · 51 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+60.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Yes2c8,000$168 inLost-$16842839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes0c7,942$30 inLost-$29.836524.6%16 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c7,195$25 inLost-$25.26480%0 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff9…e494backed Yes1c6,957$46 inLost-$45.7836040%144 W · 216 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,703$36 inLost-$35.82,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes1c6,250$50 inLost-$5012050%60 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf747…f687backed Yes1c5,895$59 inLost-$58.953253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb26c…5a58backed Yes2c5,687$100 inLost-$1001838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9833…7844backed Yes1c4,942$25 inLost-$24.772917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ab6…cfecbacked Yes1c4,928$59 inLost-$5912927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Yes2c4,750$71 inLost-$71.2522629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes1c3,543$33 inLost-$33.1924229.8%72 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f77…087ebacked Yes3c3,343$100 inLost-$99.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b9…403dbacked Yes1c3,121$21 inLost-$21.412213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes1c2,938$32 inLost-$3236047.2%170 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f7…2d60backed Yes1c2,500$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes0c2,250$10 inLost-$1014140.4%57 W · 84 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Yes1c2,000$20 inLost-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5504…77bcbacked Yes1c1,867$19 inLost-$18.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed Yes1c1,706$20 inLost-$20.471225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+122.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c76…ded5backed Yes1c1,500$17 inLost-$16.681127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Yes1c1,227$13 inLost-$13.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b713backed Yes1c1,200$12 inLost-$1270%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$102630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa45…83f3backed Yes2c955$21 inLost-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.