TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Karen Khachanov win the 2025 US Open?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,453 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes1c46,607$276 inLost-$276.28023.8%19 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes0c35,486$142 inLost-$141.8110622.6%24 W · 82 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes0c20,712$59 inLost-$59.31933.2%3 W · 90 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Yes1c20,000$110 inLost-$109.9625244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes1c8,600$60 inLost-$60.21855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c6,225$17 inLost-$17.4480%0 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes0c5,473$19 inLost-$19.426524.6%16 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc14d…263cbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b9…403dbacked Yes0c3,028$10 inLost-$10.082213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.