TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$599,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$177,639

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $599,543 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xede5…7802backed Yes1c44,444$450 inLost-$449.8860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c42,748$297 inLost-$297.49933.2%3 W · 90 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…1208backed Yes1c34,929$445 inLost-$445.412416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-75.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xafdc…e9c9backed Yes1c34,259$490 inLost-$490.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76fc…e0bdbacked Yes1c25,459$347 inLost-$346.994030%12 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes1c23,135$282 inLost-$282.286524.6%16 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c20,000$140 inLost-$140244.2%1 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Yes1c19,995$291 inLost-$290.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed Yes1c17,399$157 inLost-$156.969247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed Yes2c10,161$161 inLost-$160.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Yes1c10,000$80 inLost-$803537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost-$5018740.6%76 W · 111 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dd4…01a0backed Yes2c6,858$117 inLost-$116.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fc…b972backed Yes2c6,333$107 inLost-$106.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87e5…6444backed Yes1c5,735$50 inLost-$501315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes1c4,970$40 inLost-$39.7710622.6%24 W · 82 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes1c4,438$36 inLost-$35.551855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39a1…af66backed Yes1c3,500$32 inLost-$31.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Yes1c3,333$43 inLost-$43.3322344.8%100 W · 123 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Yes1c3,287$16 inLost-$16.434548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x654b…c791backed Yes1c2,707$23 inLost-$232010%2 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b9…403dbacked Yes1c2,303$22 inLost-$22.062213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes1c2,200$22 inLost-$21.576734.3%23 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes1c1,740$15 inLost-$14.752750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Yes1c1,630$23 inLost-$22.811225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x623a…5e86backed Yes1c1,540$16 inLost-$16.09728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick13cpaid-29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes1c1,495$13 inLost-$13.4624229.8%72 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes1c1,309$11 inLost-$11.281030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2324…2b86backed Yes1c1,160$11 inLost-$11.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…9816backed Yes1c1,000$14 inLost-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10a6…6638backed Yes1c1,000$12 inLost-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+244.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2998…b425backed Yes1c965.61$12 inLost-$11.631942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…61a7backed Yes2c868.64$18 inLost-$181330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.