TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x39a1…af66

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
119
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 57 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT3828.9%11 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+337.3%+$1,099.2
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,024Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+727.7%+$7,449
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$956Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$955.61
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$507.57
Will a club from Spain win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$87.5
FIFA Club World Cup: Will Vinicius Junior score another goal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$252.81
Will Benfica win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+498%+$1,732.99
Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$552Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+80.2%+$442.3
Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.86
Will FC Porto beat Palmeiras?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$3,208Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,208.01
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$792Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+2,962.8%+$23,463.9
Champions League Final: 3+ goals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$2,423Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,423.02
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milanbacked Inter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$206.99
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance)backed Arsenal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.67
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top Champions League scorer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$674Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$674.38
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$3,838Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,838.43
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.13
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$313.49
Champions LeagueQuarterfinals: Arsenal vs. Real Madridbacked Arsenal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$64
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$432.23
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$280
Champions League Quarterfinals: PSG vs. Aston Villabacked Aston Villa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$257
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,049Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,049.46
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,526Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+526.6%+$8,034.73
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$344.46
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,002Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,001.81
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$822Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$821.85
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$452.3
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$25.64
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.03
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$648Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$331.48
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+83.2%+$122.14
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.48
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$624Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$186.83
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.01
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$18.94
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+37%+$10.8
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,220Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.5%+$311.71
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+155.5%+$196.46
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$424Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$424.08
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$3,031Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+49.7%+$1,507.77
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.48
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+29%+$27
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$143
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$2,019Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+190.6%+$3,847.18
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$299.5
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$146
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+45.6%+$94
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$227.99
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+109.3%+$417.77
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$737Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$736.95
All 15 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$4,085Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,084.84
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,056Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+117.2%+$2,409.67
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.28
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.7
Will Real Madrid vs. Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$7,309Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+135%+$9,869.26
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$23,320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$23,320.43
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,771Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,770.72
Will Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$131.4
Will Barcelona beat Atletico Madrid?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+100%+$150
Will the match between Real Madrid and Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$129.69
Will Real Madrid beat Atletico Madrid?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$73.08
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST5100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,316Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+82.4%+$1,083.93
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+574.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 0% and -1% in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+574.6%+$724
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveirabacked Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$174.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.