TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,400,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,037,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,400,314 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,643 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47bc…abd2backed Yes21c358,975$77,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,070.77922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No71c154,256$109,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,822.613100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3057…5bcfbacked Yes17c132,685$22,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,176.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes26c119,813$31,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,414.732030%6 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x107c…fcc8backed Yes4c112,530$4,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,032.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes15c105,684$15,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,353.91376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a21…fb6cbacked Yes4c91,119$3,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,672.74100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d34…33f1backed Yes3c88,578$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed Yes34c85,564$29,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,147.140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes21c85,325$18,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,231.32130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf279…66a4backed Yes5c84,273$4,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,31010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f23…b36ebacked Yes4c79,787$3,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,181.63110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa20c…d091backed Yes3c77,768$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada7…2a51backed Yes4c74,562$2,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…426bbacked Yes2c70,556$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+233.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc78c…ff0abacked Yes36c70,014$25,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,370.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes3c61,175$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.52160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes36c60,031$21,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,577.114151.2%21 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes12c56,577$7,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,018.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d12…007fbacked Yes5c56,504$2,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,905.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb4b…3725backed Yes21c50,527$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,500425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes15c47,169$7,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,075.352429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes10c44,003$4,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,285.151811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes6c43,386$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.712213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes4c43,166$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.9190%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes31c42,919$13,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,312.791353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes26c42,758$11,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,128.215127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24aa…c5e0backed Yes7c41,423$3,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,028.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebd…2882backed Yes30c38,822$11,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,646.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes26c35,033$9,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,187.391315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-77.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes12c34,437$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,250.24119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9206…5b3ebacked Yes26c34,394$8,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,942.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17b0…4041backed Yes3c32,621$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes26c31,758$8,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,355.424820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes9c31,350$2,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,830.423525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98f5…6c3dbacked Yes3c31,100$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed Yes23c30,527$7,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,158.491020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-69.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes15c28,385$4,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,237.451118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-65.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x962e…db12backed Yes4c27,593$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes37c27,126$10,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,098.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3fe…27babacked Yes9c26,500$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-82.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes17c26,436$4,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,507.12123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4f…c690backed Yes3c25,909$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd7…cd86backed Yes28c24,237$6,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,790.38742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes41c23,936$9,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,773.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes35c22,909$8,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,070.833423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41c5…00efbacked Yes0c22,050$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4137…0db1backed Yes18c22,036$3,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,877.91714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x025e…0420backed Yes33c21,167$7,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,059.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd7…59e6backed Yes4c20,872$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x921a…ee8dbacked Yes6c20,692$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.7460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4f…28b6backed Yes3c20,567$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa75b…4121backed Yes5c20,377$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.9260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c17…04aebacked Yes4c20,205$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd7…3701backed Yes4c20,021$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes29c20,000$5,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,783.641631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb368…076ebacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f8…8a4abacked Yes4c20,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b2…f566backed Yes20c19,768$4,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,017.84333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x956e…f324backed Yes6c18,708$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes3c18,526$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.89523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Yes42c18,479$7,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,737.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes32c17,919$5,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,711.891040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…15bebacked Yes1c17,467$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes3c17,093$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.38633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc060…8956backed Yes3c17,023$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes4c16,478$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.28933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8352…d51abacked Yes31c16,345$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.57520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No70c15,647$10,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,684.438953.9%48 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes10c15,631$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.952030%6 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2012…a7bdbacked Yes4c15,411$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00bc…e0d0backed Yes4c15,083$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe51…3982backed Yes17c15,007$2,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,586.78714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+104.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c3…6493backed Yes5c14,980$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes11c14,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480120%0 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3061…3684backed Yes40c13,926$5,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,545.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c13,564$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.9320021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b07…d990backed Yes3c13,467$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes8c13,172$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.221216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+559.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc15d…c983backed Yes37c12,890$4,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,784.56333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-42%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1fe…c728backed Yes31c12,440$3,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,869.611118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1950…3435backed Yes4c12,284$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55b…a15cbacked Yes3c12,284$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f1…3548backed Yes33c12,181$3,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,963.79520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7752…2f91backed Yes31c11,706$3,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,596.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes4c11,356$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.622714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbd…4f8bbacked Yes4c11,309$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes27c11,040$3,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,018.75131.4%16 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes16c10,898$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.32825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b3…ade0backed Yes3c10,893$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0067…caf0backed Yes5c10,538$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f3…b892backed Yes29c10,400$2,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,973.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeec7…5c29backed Yes3c10,045$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92ec…0d7cbacked Yes10c9,957$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8787…4795backed Yes10c9,895$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b38…52a5backed Yes3c9,847$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes3c9,407$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.592910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0939…8137backed Yes8c9,358$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes13c9,231$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-38.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes9c9,200$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-84.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.