TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,155,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,605,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,155,453 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c1,038,244$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.85523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c1,001,371$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,392.74244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes0c777,050$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.162619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes0c249,999$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a53…406ebacked Yes0c242,170$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1790%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1fe…c728backed Yes0c150,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa75b…4121backed Yes0c134,431$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed Yes0c128,868$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.87100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807e…50d6backed Yes0c122,928$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.75100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f4…3356backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c98,219$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.76630%0 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf01…73e8backed Yes0c94,038$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c64,999$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387e…f013backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-70.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5805…c2b8backed Yes0c49,482$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb3…c67cbacked Yes0c44,807$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b2b…248abacked Yes0c44,707$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x610c…67d5backed Yes0c44,567$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6adb…f27cbacked Yes0c44,427$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6019…548fbacked Yes0c44,007$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe5…6f6bbacked Yes0c42,897$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a4d…3e88backed Yes0c42,503$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b5…5d9cbacked Yes0c41,077$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…35ecbacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7065…c100backed Yes0c39,950$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8239…4765backed Yes0c39,787$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97d2…e372backed Yes0c39,643$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.93616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef73…3c7bbacked Yes0c39,517$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a60…35fabacked Yes0c39,317$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abe…3f9cbacked Yes0c39,247$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb209…7ea5backed Yes0c38,197$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8041…ebc3backed Yes0c37,807$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdf…4273backed Yes0c37,747$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8880…400abacked Yes0c37,477$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2174…6de5backed Yes0c37,330$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3272…0f2ebacked Yes0c36,987$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x259a…31abbacked Yes0c36,847$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3215…0d4dbacked Yes0c36,477$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4798…a712backed Yes0c36,070$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bf7…224abacked Yes0c35,657$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb99…3967backed Yes0c35,577$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47fd…72a5backed Yes0c35,237$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81fc…63e3backed Yes0c35,177$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac6…c223backed Yes0c34,827$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d12…007fbacked Yes0c34,070$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2040…6101backed Yes0c33,707$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed Yes0c33,606$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.61119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-83.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6192…5893backed Yes0c31,977$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb38…87a1backed Yes0c31,467$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4856…08f0backed Yes0c31,407$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf360…73d5backed Yes0c31,067$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes0c30,542$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-88.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…d1febacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6858…7be7backed Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3724…02dfbacked Yes0c29,837$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb15…441ebacked Yes0c29,737$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d0…4903backed Yes0c29,637$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa594…cc22backed Yes0c29,597$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f04…704ebacked Yes0c29,407$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b2…59babacked Yes0c29,057$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d29…98f5backed Yes0c28,527$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb32d…3cfabacked Yes0c28,507$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a6…c3ebbacked Yes0c28,317$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72f9…c18fbacked Yes0c28,007$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6398…1a8dbacked Yes0c27,907$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1da…ef8cbacked Yes0c27,837$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec6…059bbacked Yes0c27,227$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2fb…c268backed Yes0c26,887$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa725…f8a4backed Yes0c26,787$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b55…e1a5backed Yes0c26,527$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c1…066cbacked Yes0c25,760$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b6…aaf2backed Yes0c25,247$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3216…0166backed Yes0c25,112$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa7…05e2backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2796…4562backed Yes1c23,510$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x455a…bde1backed Yes0c23,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5bf…055fbacked Yes0c22,533$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6c…d848backed Yes0c21,964$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60205%1 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-91.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf728…2283backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe75…7dadbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb368…076ebacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740.4%23 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a0a…71b8backed Yes0c18,682$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…d5dcbacked Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90f…c0edbacked Yes0c17,900$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes0c16,911$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x127f…b8ebbacked Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-74%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b3…b77ebacked Yes0c15,991$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2bb…870cbacked Yes0c15,610$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes0c15,576$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.048924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a4…c77bbacked Yes0c15,504$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0170%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes0c15,385$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.072516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes0c13,775$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.772222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e4e…e34bbacked Yes0c12,383$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc4…778abacked Yes0c12,111$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454f…46ddbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3fe…27babacked Yes0c12,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-82.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.