Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x004e19d419d05dd366793689ce2af457d51bc921d9da4af867de09f0864a4305
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,192,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,995,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,192,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 553 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 582,403$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.97 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 0c | 503,518$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 0c | 481,558$2,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.7 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 1c | 312,291$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,335.53 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 1c | 311,000$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.22 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 266,020$3,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,452.78 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…3fdebacked Yes | 1c | 198,382$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf246…dc87backed Yes | 1c | 140,438$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes | 1c | 136,754$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…8cd0backed Yes | 0c | 133,840$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8f…34c6backed Yes | 3c | 124,064$3,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,181.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…41bcbacked Yes | 1c | 104,769$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…27babacked Yes | 6c | 92,345$5,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,776.69 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…7b80backed Yes | 1c | 89,859$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…007fbacked Yes | 0c | 82,675$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c5…00efbacked Yes | 0c | 72,793$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6662…e7fcbacked Yes | 0c | 64,133$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daa…b3bebacked Yes | 1c | 62,077$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…deeabacked Yes | 1c | 54,488$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd607…1566backed Yes | 1c | 51,889$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 2c | 48,108$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.32 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…0590backed Yes | 0c | 47,867$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…6981backed Yes | 0c | 46,360$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 2c | 45,745$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed Yes | 2c | 45,000$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa666…880dbacked Yes | 1c | 43,414$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…28b6backed Yes | 0c | 42,500$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…406ebacked Yes | 0c | 41,777$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b38…52a5backed Yes | 1c | 38,069$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…c2b8backed Yes | 7c | 37,433$2,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,654.76 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632d…8213backed Yes | 0c | 37,254$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 2c | 37,135$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…cb9abacked Yes | 0c | 36,667$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 34,947$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.7 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed Yes | 2c | 33,244$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.62 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…f68abacked Yes | 3c | 31,496$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.33 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 31,080$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.75 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…f311backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3574…28b8backed Yes | 1c | 27,875$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed Yes | 2c | 27,825$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…8ce3backed Yes | 1c | 27,088$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 1c | 26,905$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…1f84backed Yes | 0c | 25,668$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…4a63backed Yes | 0c | 25,233$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 23,884$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75b…4121backed Yes | 2c | 23,441$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d45…c60ebacked Yes | 0c | 23,240$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…c7e9backed Yes | 0c | 22,221$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…87debacked Yes | 2c | 21,453$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…717ebacked Yes | 9c | 21,444$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes | 31c | 21,182$6,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,517.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bd…16f8backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1495…a0b4backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c17…04aebacked Yes | 1c | 19,991$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 2c | 19,450$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.15 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfef8…91d9backed Yes | 2c | 18,894$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…ad01backed Yes | 1c | 18,797$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b0…045cbacked Yes | 1c | 18,029$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d14…a653backed Yes | 1c | 17,357$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6050…80d6backed Yes | 3c | 17,295$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…8f5fbacked Yes | 2c | 16,818$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…740fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,746$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc4…0535backed Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f80…079ebacked Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bee…2fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 16,600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…066cbacked Yes | 1c | 16,377$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 3c | 16,288$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes | 1c | 15,606$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.65 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76c…6090backed Yes | 2c | 15,551$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…5b9fbacked Yes | 1c | 15,253$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…e90dbacked Yes | 38c | 15,251$5,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,730 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…801bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,853$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3664…ecacbacked Yes | 1c | 14,470$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…f01abacked Yes | 1c | 14,408$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…de51backed Yes | 1c | 14,368$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…a3eebacked Yes | 1c | 14,348$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…c77bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,973$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe51…3982backed Yes | 3c | 13,802$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd018…4a2abacked Yes | 1c | 13,790$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…6e16backed Yes | 0c | 13,544$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…35ecbacked Yes | 0c | 13,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 2c | 13,236$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.07 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a3…e977backed Yes | 1c | 12,891$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…44c5backed Yes | 1c | 12,863$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce1…2161backed Yes | 1c | 12,586$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…5ec9backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e87…4cf9backed Yes | 1c | 12,013$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…3e88backed Yes | 0c | 11,764$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…50d6backed Yes | 0c | 11,456$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…56f1backed Yes | 3c | 11,297$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,148$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.8 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -69%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 11,130$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.66 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…922ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe75…7dadbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 26c | 11,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…d231backed Yes | 0c | 10,770$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaab…d94bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,440$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?Yes won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?No won
- Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.