Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde507497bdd5d63090dfd8e6e29167216c66576bf8d029d87c99bef4e357c696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,304,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,787,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,304,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 411 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 1,065,040$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.13 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 714,308$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.04 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a12fbacked Yes | 1c | 384,533$4,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,995 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 0c | 329,998$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes | 0c | 260,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce1…2161backed Yes | 0c | 230,980$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 0c | 198,433$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.95 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 174,190$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.13 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f00…e8dbbacked Yes | 0c | 171,583$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…6020backed Yes | 0c | 161,028$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…ca92backed Yes | 0c | 157,835$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5af…0158backed Yes | 0c | 133,547$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294e…79fcbacked Yes | 0c | 131,086$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2846…7b0bbacked Yes | 0c | 125,861$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…717ebacked Yes | 2c | 110,797$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 0c | 110,654$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.68 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…8f5fbacked Yes | 0c | 101,881$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…11c8backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…3183backed Yes | 0c | 93,294$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…50d6backed Yes | 0c | 74,925$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 0c | 74,760$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28d…b24bbacked Yes | 0c | 70,500$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9472…4032backed Yes | 1c | 67,572$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b5…9a40backed Yes | 0c | 66,700$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…d868backed Yes | 0c | 63,666$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…066cbacked Yes | 1c | 62,377$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…8c0cbacked Yes | 0c | 61,242$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e10…280ebacked Yes | 0c | 60,069$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…3e88backed Yes | 0c | 59,009$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6baf…722cbacked Yes | 1c | 57,426$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75b…4121backed Yes | 1c | 56,047$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ef…4772backed Yes | 1c | 54,939$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…f68abacked Yes | 1c | 53,739$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.07 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 0c | 51,067$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12b…415dbacked Yes | 0c | 49,759$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…c38fbacked Yes | 0c | 45,403$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…25e2backed Yes | 0c | 44,240$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa413…55cabacked Yes | 1c | 41,302$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…f60ebacked Yes | 1c | 41,271$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…11f9backed Yes | 0c | 41,060$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…deeabacked Yes | 0c | 40,913$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…35ecbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…3a2dbacked Yes | 0c | 38,792$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c331backed Yes | 0c | 38,600$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…cbf4backed Yes | 0c | 37,700$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…0996backed Yes | 1c | 37,290$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…c2b8backed Yes | 3c | 35,962$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.43 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae88…8f5bbacked Yes | 0c | 34,950$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…f311backed Yes | 0c | 34,694$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bd…16f8backed Yes | 0c | 34,020$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc7…61ddbacked Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5daa…6a15backed Yes | 0c | 30,705$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf246…dc87backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 0c | 28,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30e2…a056backed Yes | 1c | 27,493$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…15aebacked Yes | 1c | 27,195$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…a3eebacked Yes | 0c | 26,553$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d61…a500backed Yes | 1c | 26,171$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…e248backed Yes | 0c | 25,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes | 1c | 25,274$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…007fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…45c6backed Yes | 1c | 24,303$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf35…a2a7backed Yes | 1c | 24,080$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…da22backed Yes | 1c | 23,571$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e99…4cccbacked Yes | 1c | 23,571$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 0c | 23,335$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…cf68backed Yes | 0c | 23,037$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 0c | 22,184$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…f934backed Yes | 0c | 22,020$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…c8dfbacked Yes | 0c | 21,900$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes | 8c | 21,786$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 21,277$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.43 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…2ae9backed Yes | 0c | 21,080$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8397…99c1backed Yes | 1c | 20,655$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053f…54f4backed Yes | 0c | 20,573$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…4ba6backed Yes | 0c | 20,015$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d14…a653backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe75…7dadbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…406ebacked Yes | 1c | 19,197$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 19,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed Yes | 0c | 18,974$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…51edbacked Yes | 1c | 18,962$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…5a70backed Yes | 0c | 18,893$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330a…8f45backed Yes | 1c | 18,862$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…3c69backed Yes | 0c | 18,846$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259a…991dbacked Yes | 1c | 18,717$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…27babacked Yes | 2c | 18,431$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.88 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…8578backed Yes | 1c | 18,135$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…0f61backed Yes | 0c | 18,103$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…94bebacked Yes | 1c | 17,707$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…1193backed Yes | 1c | 17,500$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…b971backed Yes | 1c | 16,766$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…f357backed Yes | 1c | 16,374$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…80c9backed Yes | 1c | 16,248$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c41…ac29backed Yes | 1c | 16,168$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…0590backed Yes | 0c | 15,437$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…4c7dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?Yes won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?No won
- Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.