Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa11a9c66032cbe8c607bf1b21591f65dfee9d5eb65d73cc8ad5009c1f9826fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,490,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,072,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,490,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,470 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 67c | 385,015$258,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126,236.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 80c | 148,820$118,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,364.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd518…6ab4backed No | 3c | 108,683$2,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,934.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 67c | 97,993$65,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,825.09 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed No | 39c | 60,591$23,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,438.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes | 68c | 59,525$40,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,105.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 67c | 57,087$38,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,686.61 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 57c | 57,017$32,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,517.66 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…7252backed No | 3c | 54,652$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…5b4dbacked Yes | 73c | 53,126$38,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,280.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…df51backed No | 6c | 51,719$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 4c | 51,628$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.67 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe58a…aba6backed No | 4c | 50,339$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 15c | 47,993$7,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,146.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 66c | 43,672$28,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,038.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 2c | 40,573$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.61 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…444dbacked No | 4c | 39,142$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 67c | 36,649$24,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,174.95 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…9d86backed No | 2c | 35,628$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed Yes | 68c | 33,477$22,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,611.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c45…83e4backed No | 1c | 30,890$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 65c | 29,520$19,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,313.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…5babbacked Yes | 70c | 26,230$18,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,748.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c51…8cddbacked Yes | 64c | 23,704$15,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,533.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 63c | 23,245$14,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,662.58 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…c9cdbacked Yes | 71c | 22,542$15,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,638.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c9…4dc0backed No | 3c | 22,350$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 14c | 20,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…b321backed No | 8c | 18,000$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 74c | 17,500$13,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,468.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebd…2882backed Yes | 69c | 16,341$11,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,065.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 68c | 15,770$10,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,063.72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…337ebacked No | 3c | 15,610$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 61c | 15,581$9,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,084.6 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 57c | 15,200$8,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,536 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed No | 3c | 15,078$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…deeabacked No | 4c | 15,036$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…fa65backed Yes | 71c | 14,860$10,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,272.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed No | 13c | 12,513$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.94 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 33c | 12,239$4,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,073.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 67c | 11,831$7,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,892.52 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…0146backed Yes | 69c | 11,578$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,577.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked No | 3c | 11,530$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0a…c642backed No | 31c | 11,462$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,539.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 68c | 10,833$7,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,433.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…8d31backed Yes | 72c | 10,500$7,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,950 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…2c77backed No | 0c | 10,273$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd709…7de0backed No | 3c | 10,263$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…3c7abacked Yes | 66c | 10,193$6,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,516 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e9…f1b5backed No | 3c | 10,157$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2233…62b7backed No | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 69c | 10,000$6,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,137.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 69c | 9,843$6,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,082.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…1288backed Yes | 79c | 9,791$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 9,588$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.84 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes | 68c | 9,531$6,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 78c | 9,444$7,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Yes | 62c | 9,114$5,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,428.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 71c | 9,092$6,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.21 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…8ecebacked Yes | 72c | 8,657$6,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.86 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 68c | 8,589$5,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,748.35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…050ebacked No | 3c | 8,394$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…6e16backed No | 3c | 8,108$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.96 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 72c | 8,092$5,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 3c | 8,000$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…007fbacked No | 3c | 7,889$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf246…dc87backed No | 4c | 7,769$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.59 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…27babacked No | 32c | 7,466$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.47 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…406ebacked No | 3c | 7,456$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…cd86backed Yes | 61c | 7,387$4,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,874.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…a885backed No | 3c | 7,329$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 65c | 7,234$4,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,527.11 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…589abacked Yes | 71c | 7,222$5,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb6…7081backed No | 4c | 7,152$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c02…c44ebacked No | 4c | 7,142$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…68f7backed No | 4c | 7,089$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…d860backed Yes | 66c | 7,005$4,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…0069backed Yes | 70c | 6,873$4,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked Yes | 60c | 6,799$4,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…50f6backed No | 15c | 6,708$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1a…354fbacked Yes | 60c | 6,667$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,666.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked No | 34c | 6,606$2,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,246.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0312…2173backed No | 13c | 6,423$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.49 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed No | 35c | 6,250$2,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 79c | 6,243$4,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 6,187$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.39 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 69c | 6,000$4,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 60c | 5,800$3,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.93 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…327fbacked Yes | 69c | 5,601$3,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 63c | 5,500$3,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…41d5backed No | 3c | 5,350$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 68c | 5,222$3,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…c881backed Yes | 66c | 5,219$3,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e6…beb9backed Yes | 58c | 5,173$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed No | 5c | 5,000$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…d8d5backed Yes | 54c | 4,944$2,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,286.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…c106backed Yes | 61c | 4,927$3,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 70c | 4,834$3,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 15c | 4,771$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.62 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…741bbacked Yes | 63c | 4,763$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?No won
- Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.