TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,490,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,072,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,490,697 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,470 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84b…5055backed Yes67c385,015$258,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126,236.741376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes80c148,820$118,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,364.861631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd518…6ab4backed No3c108,683$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes67c97,993$65,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,825.095127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed No39c60,591$23,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,438.3740%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes68c59,525$40,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,105.95580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes67c57,087$38,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,686.612030%6 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes57c57,017$32,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,517.662429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0074…7252backed No3c54,652$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5550…5b4dbacked Yes73c53,126$38,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,280.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5869…df51backed No6c51,719$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No4c51,628$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.67160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe58a…aba6backed No4c50,339$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No15c47,993$7,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,146.56850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed Yes66c43,672$28,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,038.061020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-69.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed No2c40,573$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.61523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3df…444dbacked No4c39,142$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes67c36,649$24,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,174.954151.2%21 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0180…9d86backed No2c35,628$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e50…2a28backed Yes68c33,477$22,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,611.011258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c45…83e4backed No1c30,890$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Yes65c29,520$19,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,313.44922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe438…5babbacked Yes70c26,230$18,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,748.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c51…8cddbacked Yes64c23,704$15,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,533.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes63c23,245$14,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,662.581172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+40.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0078…c9cdbacked Yes71c22,542$15,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,638.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c9…4dc0backed No3c22,350$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No14c20,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7001711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-56.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x534b…b321backed No8c18,000$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes74c17,500$13,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,468.86475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebd…2882backed Yes69c16,341$11,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,065.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes68c15,770$10,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,063.721637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d34…337ebacked No3c15,610$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes61c15,581$9,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,084.68953.9%48 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes57c15,200$8,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5363548.6%17 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed No3c15,078$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.63128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-84.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e15…deeabacked No4c15,036$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.1750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab4…fa65backed Yes71c14,860$10,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,272.851050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed No13c12,513$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.942516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked No33c12,239$4,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,073.46742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes67c11,831$7,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,892.523423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25d7…0146backed Yes69c11,578$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,577.64333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked No3c11,530$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd0a…c642backed No31c11,462$3,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,539.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc30a…353bbacked Yes68c10,833$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,433.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab6d…8d31backed Yes72c10,500$7,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,950633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-45.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ef…2c77backed No0c10,273$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd709…7de0backed No3c10,263$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f14…3c7abacked Yes66c10,193$6,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5161560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76e9…f1b5backed No3c10,157$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2233…62b7backed No6c10,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…8839backed Yes69c10,000$6,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Yes69c9,843$6,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,082.64520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-70.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf6…1288backed Yes79c9,791$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No10c9,588$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.8420021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes68c9,531$6,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,005.79742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes78c9,444$7,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.561833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed Yes62c9,114$5,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,428.454100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+64.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes71c9,092$6,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.21229.1%2 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f9a…8ecebacked Yes72c8,657$6,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.865100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes68c8,589$5,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,748.352119%4 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-65.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a83…050ebacked No3c8,394$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ac…6e16backed No3c8,108$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.96110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47dc…eec9backed Yes72c8,092$5,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.23560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked No3c8,000$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a62…007fbacked No3c7,889$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.0690%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf246…dc87backed No4c7,769$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.59128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-83.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3fe…27babacked No32c7,466$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,354.47224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-82.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a53…406ebacked No3c7,456$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7490%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd7…cd86backed Yes61c7,387$4,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,874.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79f1…a885backed No3c7,329$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes65c7,234$4,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.119018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x199d…589abacked Yes71c7,222$5,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.89450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb6…7081backed No4c7,152$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c02…c44ebacked No4c7,142$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9770%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03e…68f7backed No4c7,089$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f5…d860backed Yes66c7,005$4,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7441…0069backed Yes70c6,873$4,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7120…201bbacked Yes60c6,799$4,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.591060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+52.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d6…50f6backed No15c6,708$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1a…354fbacked Yes60c6,667$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.66966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+63.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c72…ee4cbacked No34c6,606$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0312…2173backed No13c6,423$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.4990%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed No35c6,250$2,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190.6180%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes79c6,243$4,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.42626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-61.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No36c6,187$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.3918135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes69c6,000$4,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8601030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes60c5,800$3,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.931942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7463…327fbacked Yes69c5,601$3,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Yes63c5,500$3,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+64.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed No3c5,350$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes68c5,222$3,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.72922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12a1…c881backed Yes66c5,219$3,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e6…beb9backed Yes58c5,173$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,173.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97d2…e372backed No5c5,000$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb23…d8d5backed Yes54c4,944$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,286.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf29d…c106backed Yes61c4,927$3,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes70c4,834$3,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.861330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No15c4,771$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.623622.2%8 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x456a…741bbacked Yes63c4,763$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.