Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb685671ec5f12410f48006fad1ec60fa1a1e19f3a5ba09a81ab45b026821252d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,228,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,323,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,228,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 419,999$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 344,824$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.82 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 0c | 339,999$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ce…1c75backed Yes | 0c | 249,880$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…92b2backed Yes | 0c | 224,789$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…2d4cbacked Yes | 0c | 224,789$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f4…58c2backed Yes | 0c | 224,789$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a5…48ffbacked Yes | 0c | 224,789$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…fd93backed Yes | 0c | 224,747$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9768…f983backed Yes | 0c | 182,623$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…d7a2backed Yes | 0c | 162,074$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…afeebacked Yes | 0c | 162,064$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…79b2backed Yes | 0c | 162,064$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…468cbacked Yes | 0c | 162,064$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…299bbacked Yes | 0c | 153,060$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 0c | 117,501$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…406ebacked Yes | 0c | 112,729$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…3356backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…5f7bbacked Yes | 0c | 95,000$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.97 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 94,861$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.86 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28d…b24bbacked Yes | 0c | 89,999$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…5bcfbacked Yes | 0c | 76,492$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75b…4121backed Yes | 1c | 73,914$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 0c | 70,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…05e2backed Yes | 0c | 69,910$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…de51backed Yes | 0c | 51,200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 0c | 50,335$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…ea7ebacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f80…079ebacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 47,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610c…67d5backed Yes | 0c | 44,567$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4798…a712backed Yes | 0c | 44,537$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…50d6backed Yes | 0c | 43,008$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2653…d0f4backed Yes | 0c | 41,170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34c…a9d8backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bd…16f8backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…35ecbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef73…3c7bbacked Yes | 0c | 39,517$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…258cbacked Yes | 1c | 34,533$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.86 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf978…cf69backed Yes | 0c | 32,867$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa23…8d7bbacked Yes | 0c | 32,668$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4e…e34bbacked Yes | 0c | 31,356$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…4273backed Yes | 0c | 31,157$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 1c | 30,870$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…3436backed Yes | 0c | 30,440$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044d…565bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,104$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…bde1backed Yes | 0c | 29,982$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6019…548fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,650$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…4903backed Yes | 0c | 29,637$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…7ea5backed Yes | 0c | 28,951$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…98f5backed Yes | 0c | 27,962$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1da…ef8cbacked Yes | 0c | 27,837$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…63e3backed Yes | 0c | 27,593$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb99…3967backed Yes | 0c | 27,241$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…059bbacked Yes | 0c | 27,227$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…d1febacked Yes | 0c | 27,051$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b5…5d9cbacked Yes | 0c | 26,934$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…245abacked Yes | 0c | 26,890$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fb…c268backed Yes | 0c | 26,887$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad00…ebe1backed Yes | 0c | 26,881$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa725…f8a4backed Yes | 0c | 26,787$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3215…0d4dbacked Yes | 0c | 26,701$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2040…6101backed Yes | 0c | 26,637$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3724…02dfbacked Yes | 0c | 26,607$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb3…c67cbacked Yes | 0c | 26,592$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…5893backed Yes | 0c | 26,579$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4856…08f0backed Yes | 0c | 26,089$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32d…3cfabacked Yes | 0c | 25,730$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…066cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…3f9cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,662$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…0f2ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,616$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…e248backed Yes | 0c | 25,500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…c18fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,369$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…704ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…aaf2backed Yes | 0c | 25,247$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…ebc3backed Yes | 0c | 25,184$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…007fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c17…04aebacked Yes | 0c | 23,731$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc4…778abacked Yes | 0c | 23,222$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…4562backed Yes | 1c | 22,020$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…c775backed Yes | 1c | 21,384$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635e…d180backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…28b6backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…79aabacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe75…7dadbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e1…f226backed Yes | 0c | 19,750$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 0c | 19,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…aedbbacked Yes | 1c | 19,221$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 0c | 17,430$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0a…71b8backed Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…f013backed Yes | 1c | 15,636$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d61…e629backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da8…dddfbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 14,913$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…3a2dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,620$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?Yes won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?No won
- Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.