TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x66e7…24c2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
115
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Movies, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 56 out of 100; worst Music at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2025, EDT2619.2%5 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$207
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+94.2%+$193.98
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$78
Heat vs. Cavaliersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Twolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$120.9
Grizzlies vs. Thunderbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Bucks vs. Pacersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$76
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+203%+$133.98
76ers vs. Lakersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$51.36
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$29.99
Heat vs. Nuggetsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$79.99
Wizards vs. Grizzliesbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$63.99
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$50.44
Nets vs. Celticsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$28
Suns vs. Mavericksbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+123.6%+$110.56
Warriors vs. Cavaliersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$73.99
Bucks vs. Knicksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$58
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$98
Pacers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST+244.8%+$141.96
Pelicans vs. Magicbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$65.88
Celtics vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST-100%-$90.67
Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$411Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$410.7
Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$140.2
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT267.7%2 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-86.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Music — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,493Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,493.25
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.86
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.64
Will Estonia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$223.02
Will Finland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.67
Will France win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$380.48
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.83
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$900
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$84
Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Netherlands be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.01
Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+70.1%+$153.37
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$797Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$796.5
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.65
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$340
Will Serbia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.38
Will Czechia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$162
Will Greece qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.9
Will Georgia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Czechia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$280
Will Montenegro qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Latvia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$352.09
Will Lithuania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$135
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.19
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,000
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,000
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$5,544Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$5,544.14
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$1,200.79
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$4,434Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$4,434.12
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$100
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$120
Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$128.87
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$74.76
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,007Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$1,007.04
All 10 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-70.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+110.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+488.2%+$218.56
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Virtus.pro vs. Vitalitybacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$104
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.65
US-China trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+400%+$221.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$45.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2024 September hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 10, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$110
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.