NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Thunder
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc142065b6ae3ec8daaf72f044a2802eef26a374b051afc40f1a2a81a7342a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Rockets, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Thunder | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Rockets | 24c | 2,916$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.32 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Rockets | 25c | 2,070$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.01 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Thunder | 75c | 1,948$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Rockets | 1c | 1,531$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Rockets | 2c | 1,376$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698c…5f40backed Rockets | 9c | 1,278$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Thunder | 74c | 1,237$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.58 | 337 | 52.5%177 W · 160 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Thunder | 71c | 1,050$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.28 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Rockets | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Thunder | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Rockets | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Thunder | 79c | 633.7$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Rockets | 25c | 512$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Thunder | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 313 | 47%147 W · 166 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb6…7245backed Rockets | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 150 | 34%51 W · 99 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…4056backed Rockets | 26c | 399.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Thunder | 75c | 333$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b0…b622backed Rockets | 5c | 290$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7722…ee4bbacked Thunder | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f397backed Rockets | 25c | 236.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Rockets | 29c | 221.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Rockets | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 136 | 11.8%16 W · 120 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Rockets | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Thunder | 73c | 199.95$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Thunder | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Rockets | 30c | 196.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…a76ebacked Thunder | 76c | 157.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8186…e3d2backed Thunder | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Thunder | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…5abdbacked Thunder | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Rockets | 25c | 133$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…0cf9backed Thunder | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Thunder | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef7…ff8abacked Thunder | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Rockets | 23c | 128.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Rockets | 25c | 107$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Thunder | 73c | 105.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…cd66backed Rockets | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…ee60backed Rockets | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Thunder | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Rockets | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 276 | 42%116 W · 160 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Rockets | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…f52fbacked Rockets | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7742…03e9backed Rockets | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -17.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Rockets | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 24.1%63 W · 198 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead7…efedbacked Rockets | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked Thunder | 75c | 93.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…ea06backed Rockets | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e2ebbacked Rockets | 26c | 80.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Thunder | 73c | 78.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed Rockets | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 36.2%88 W · 155 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Rockets | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 709 | 51.3%364 W · 345 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6d…6632backed Thunder | 77c | 71.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Thunder | 75c | 70.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Thunder | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3b…5911backed Thunder | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Thunder | 73c | 60.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…acd7backed Thunder | 75c | 55.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd075…df51backed Rockets | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…7840backed Thunder | 77c | 52.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 67cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…0805backed Thunder | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…5c47backed Rockets | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…80eebacked Rockets | 26c | 46.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…2035backed Rockets | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…1304backed Rockets | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c48…6597backed Thunder | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…8f0cbacked Thunder | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…84d9backed Thunder | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Thunder | 77c | 38.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…b63bbacked Thunder | 73c | 33.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8226…6520backed Thunder | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Thunder | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3422…7328backed Thunder | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a5…6e66backed Thunder | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7c…ea32backed Thunder | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde1…02abbacked Thunder | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Thunder | 73c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…65a6backed Thunder | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…a9c8backed Thunder | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…80febacked Thunder | 77c | 19.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe4…9b79backed Thunder | 76c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…e09ebacked Thunder | 76c | 17.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…0762backed Thunder | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.