TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,006,436
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,024,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,006,436 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 807 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde92…5e10backed Yes13c132,940$17,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,525.12742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x741f…36d1backed Yes0c109,999$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe105…9cb3backed Yes17c84,963$14,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,485.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Yes25c52,993$13,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,128.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed No63c52,525$32,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,662.8735123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51d7…238cbacked No46c46,692$21,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,047.164050%20 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c40,383$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.171015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Yes29c40,071$11,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,455.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes20c36,931$7,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,274.672227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No68c36,286$24,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,559.4814337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes3c34,958$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed Yes22c32,806$7,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,157.053716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b1…adeebacked Yes29c30,495$8,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,771.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No79c30,010$23,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,290.9919535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No68c30,000$20,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,520.555869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c30,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes13c30,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.96650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+83.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1258…0c15backed Yes1c25,330$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.3714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No80c24,578$19,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,029.695662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf985…2939backed Yes4c22,456$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad45…b8c9backed Yes2c21,214$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.13937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc334…d01bbacked Yes2c20,919$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f6e…e2bdbacked Yes26c20,585$5,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,440.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes3c20,445$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.781488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked No66c19,999$13,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,799.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d41…1a89backed Yes1c18,608$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca5…8727backed Yes6c18,000$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1354515.6%7 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+280.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes3c16,695$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.12382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b4…d3e9backed Yes0c16,101$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb85e…6e0fbacked No70c15,796$11,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,664.573080%24 W · 6 L+7.0wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+29.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes25c14,999$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,749.82536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ca…a461backed Yes1c14,595$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.052429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e0…7586backed No43c14,403$6,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,269.531833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes36c14,285$5,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,083.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c13,410$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.861360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes33c13,000$4,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2452425%6 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd38a…52c0backed Yes4c12,596$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.78647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes33c12,097$3,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,978.363835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes1c12,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.651020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a8…34f5backed Yes10c10,283$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca60…4d02backed No66c10,230$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,480.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c10,090$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.09800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe43…3e8dbacked Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70200%0 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes2c10,000$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.12250%0 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes33c9,999$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-79.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes1c9,850$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-91.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf984…0a62backed Yes75c9,848$7,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4152040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-46.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e04…c004backed Yes1c9,637$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.412114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick6cpaid+61.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed Yes36c9,295$3,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,343.41837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c9,168$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.071,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19a4…4e3cbacked Yes2c9,109$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4670%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4e…d609backed No27c9,002$2,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,595.14100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+91.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes1c8,630$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.216728.4%19 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes2c8,264$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016013.3%8 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe35…bd42backed Yes5c8,196$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa117…a311backed Yes66c7,999$5,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,279.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5181…43a7backed Yes2c7,757$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb936…78d7backed Yes20c7,654$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53a2…84f0backed Yes1c7,580$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc367…5b2bbacked Yes1c7,512$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed No77c7,473$5,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.651030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc476…bb56backed Yes3c7,428$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc66…83e1backed Yes24c7,231$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.66220%0 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd130…2a3ebacked Yes3c7,121$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5412…f86fbacked Yes46c7,000$3,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,217.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfed…9980backed Yes1c6,995$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd6…e746backed Yes3c6,660$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes26c6,610$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.0618315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd62a…5fefbacked Yes17c6,407$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…d824backed Yes28c5,980$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6af7…2c4bbacked Yes40c5,967$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394.36425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-66.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b6…720bbacked Yes8c5,712$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e77…c4f3backed No73c5,584$4,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.042680.8%21 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x25ab…6321backed Yes9c5,566$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+173.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd575…d2d8backed Yes1c5,500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes14c5,353$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c5,277$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895411.1%6 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe64e…2143backed Yes41c5,259$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,155.181145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes1c5,212$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.194517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86c1…d727backed Yes3c5,089$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes39c5,072$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0504858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b72…885ebacked Yes5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d2…05a8backed Yes1c4,993$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.33280%0 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c86…bb78backed Yes2c4,710$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c4,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No73c4,420$3,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.0813770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes6c4,200$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x790e…76afbacked Yes9c4,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b4…8befbacked Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes21c3,916$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.341833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed No10c3,826$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,45516761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc4aa…8d91backed Yes36c3,790$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.39130%0 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes22c3,684$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.428920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes28c3,493$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.0925824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No80c3,490$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.115756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf10b…97a5backed Yes28c3,488$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.61723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea8c…ddecbacked Yes19c3,315$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620500%0 W · 50 L-9.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No73c3,208$2,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.2287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd98b…a558backed Yes1c3,193$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.