TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$468,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$467,224

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $468,955 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c24,637$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.141488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c23,607$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.212290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c18,784$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.31360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes2c12,911$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.34362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cd…f566backed Yes4c11,902$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003917.9%7 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+105%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes8c11,375$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.4918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed Yes8c10,839$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.073716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc66…83e1backed Yes13c7,731$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000220%0 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c7,249$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.381,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4de3…45b1backed Yes8c5,720$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes23c5,361$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.5647721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19b4…d3e9backed Yes0c4,464$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a1e…04c0backed Yes0c4,126$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ec…4900backed Yes7c4,000$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797f…c983backed Yes4c3,690$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes5c3,653$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.446013.3%8 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes10c3,507$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.6263835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes13c3,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802425%6 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes1c2,521$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.86382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes3c2,444$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.599913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes9c2,327$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.657423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes4c2,274$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes1c2,171$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.05270%0 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c2,148$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.15411.1%6 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb07a…98f7backed Yes9c2,111$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9025…d2ccbacked Yes12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30d2…05a8backed Yes4c1,597$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.15280%0 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes3c1,587$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.638920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b0d1backed Yes16c1,549$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.81238.7%2 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-76%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1f4…43d8backed Yes7c1,437$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5180%0 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes1c1,346$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2b…b404backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100427.1%3 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18e6…c6e5backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3a…e1b6backed Yes4c1,240$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4705…3988backed Yes8c1,189$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6364…ee22backed Yes3c1,174$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0260%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9c…a7abbacked Yes14c1,110$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.470%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc89f…0df8backed Yes7c1,100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a3…6bd4backed Yes12c1,024$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.631811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-54.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd30f…7da2backed Yes2c1,020$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc1c…ad56backed Yes14c1,000$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.791330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c84…9d2bbacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92e…b377backed Yes12c960.92$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.31837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+38.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa614…6fc8backed Yes8c927.88$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.23280%0 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9527…01ffbacked Yes11c899.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6127…7856backed Yes13c893.36$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9a38…360bbacked Yes7c884.18$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.691165.2%6 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes8c880.44$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.132920.7%6 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick9cpaid+269.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3af…1aa6backed Yes7c849.94$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.93611.1%4 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5426…1339backed Yes36c833.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300290%0 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x22d6…00d5backed Yes3c810$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x571c…a199backed Yes25c790$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes9c758.39$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5514337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x181a…2327backed Yes14c639$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+65.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7719…fbc8backed Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa779…e265backed Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes30c621.2$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3255032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f4…b6dcbacked Yes7c615.82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.422025%5 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8e…46d6backed No80c569$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.84100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid-20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d19…4513backed Yes36c555.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes24c550$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.516729.3%49 W · 118 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4c5…0951backed Yes6c541.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302425%6 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-64.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1008470.2%59 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25955.6%5 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick16cpaid+162.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4521…4e6cbacked Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ffb…b2f8backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402119%4 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…be7cbacked Yes5c499.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No66c499.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3a…6e70backed Yes4c465.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf6…f622backed Yes30c459.1$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7340%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes17c451.5$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0130531.1%95 W · 210 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c03…6e0abacked Yes8c414$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked Yes33c393.58$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.885545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes7c368$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.921693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c7d…8407backed Yes3c361.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-83.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4aa…8d91backed Yes6c358.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes6c327.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.211015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97be…136bbacked Yes34c322.21$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0196…d9f9backed Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a2a…aab2backed No67c296.42$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.821190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick73cpaid+24.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee19…2aa7backed Yes35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x56d6…c255backed No77c280$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.41668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc555…38e7backed Yes22c267.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-51.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed No78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.415955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x43c0…6f57backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…92f9backed Yes5c240$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedfc…1df1backed No67c238.81$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.813871.1%27 W · 11 L+6.9wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+29.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed Yes8c225$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1870%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1087…345cbacked Yes7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb6…52d3backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…b0e9backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019a…d3aabacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x957c…8870backed Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc5c…72e0backed Yes14c180.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ab9…1437backed Yes14c170.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.