Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fb111f35876e1844c4d4d2c8276f2b6242a2c54a402f612772544296463e624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,751,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,063,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,751,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 0c | 183,098$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.99 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…d3e9backed Yes | 1c | 168,887$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…0752backed Yes | 1c | 144,130$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.86 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…f7a8backed Yes | 1c | 62,343$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 1c | 60,345$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.86 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a75cbacked Yes | 0c | 59,920$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.03 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes | 0c | 59,367$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.73 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…8a1dbacked Yes | 0c | 46,999$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 34,609$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 26,612$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 79 | 2.5%2 W · 77 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -96%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,684$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6a…188bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,990$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…0ec7backed Yes | 0c | 22,989$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -97.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…970cbacked Yes | 1c | 22,940$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae6…7906backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…810bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 0c | 19,427$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 18,271$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdb…d81ebacked Yes | 1c | 18,231$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2f…6c3abacked Yes | 1c | 13,573$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…8be3backed Yes | 1c | 13,333$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,857$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa665…52d5backed Yes | 1c | 12,812$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…db0dbacked Yes | 1c | 12,558$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f31…5490backed Yes | 1c | 12,221$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8c…ddecbacked Yes | 1c | 10,483$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 0c | 10,365$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe5…307abacked Yes | 1c | 9,909$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,786$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc1…1173backed Yes | 1c | 9,540$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7043…1425backed Yes | 0c | 9,026$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7719…fbc8backed Yes | 1c | 8,877$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…518fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,711$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes | 1c | 7,533$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…1ef5backed Yes | 1c | 7,070$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e00…15c9backed Yes | 1c | 7,050$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a1…edc6backed Yes | 1c | 5,850$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…9b66backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…6f28backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3c01backed Yes | 0c | 4,885$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,505$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 3,827$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…e7e9backed Yes | 1c | 3,650$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecd…d2e3backed Yes | 1c | 3,363$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf2…1d7ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…c064backed Yes | 1c | 2,767$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…bc13backed Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…d4c7backed Yes | 1c | 2,584$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…0e44backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…5711backed Yes | 1c | 2,387$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…0329backed Yes | 1c | 2,320$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…f195backed Yes | 0c | 2,119$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…0772backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,931$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…20cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,837$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380a…4741backed Yes | 1c | 1,830$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…091bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e99…bce3backed Yes | 1c | 1,222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57df…aef8backed Yes | 1c | 1,033$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…fa8bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,005$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…13c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.