Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07ede5a610a719b47aba570d73c029eb0c21faaf2a6b1a6f63426bd6c0215126
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $690,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $658,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $690,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 34,999$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 2c | 31,222$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.09 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…0ec7backed Yes | 0c | 26,399$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -97.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 24,530$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 23,859$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.58 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,265$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…518fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,720$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 1c | 12,680$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.71 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a75cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,973$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,400$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 4c | 9,541$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.78 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea7f…85d5backed Yes | 3c | 7,466$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…4526backed Yes | 2c | 7,090$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b05…8fccbacked Yes | 1c | 7,050$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…d3e9backed Yes | 0c | 7,046$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,976$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.84 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…7adcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,807$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b91…e572backed Yes | 2c | 5,180$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,629$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,299$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7719…fbc8backed Yes | 3c | 4,060$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380a…4741backed Yes | 2c | 2,959$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…6b42backed Yes | 2c | 2,605$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a4…8a58backed Yes | 6c | 2,555$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…1aa6backed Yes | 1c | 2,122$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6549…5401backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…4f65backed Yes | 5c | 1,970$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf091…e7e0backed Yes | 2c | 1,959$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8c…ddecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,486$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…c4b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,404$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad36…2e8bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,347$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f33…9c40backed Yes | 1c | 1,219$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c4…b517backed Yes | 5c | 1,180$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…34b0backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…b377backed Yes | 5c | 1,025$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…a8d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…43d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…8d91backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e98…d70ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…a0e1backed Yes | 1c | 999.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…b3bfbacked Yes | 3c | 888$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c5…1cb8backed Yes | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…1567backed Yes | 4c | 799.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes | 6c | 766.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…0e44backed Yes | 3c | 763.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0046…6916backed Yes | 5c | 733.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 733$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f71…912dbacked Yes | 2c | 703.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4b…8d4abacked Yes | 1c | 702$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…9b19backed Yes | 3c | 657$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbf…98babacked Yes | 3c | 618.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 6c | 557.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb33c…3ed6backed Yes | 5c | 523.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 6c | 502.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…aad0backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2697…ea78backed Yes | 5c | 422$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…b124backed Yes | 5c | 414$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…ea10backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…f7adbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57df…aef8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.