Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2274050cff6dfae854c77b089cde419e594eb2dad0b21bc2c97eb96426096a23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8e…dbf2backed No | 0c | 31,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…af1fbacked No | 0c | 30,700$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 15,946$11,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,195.43 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…0babbacked No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 34c | 9,707$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300.07 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 68c | 7,687$5,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,431.32 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…0a62backed No | 20c | 6,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…9974backed No | 34c | 5,368$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 79c | 2,794$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.96 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…c8d5backed Yes | 67c | 2,597$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc570…5557backed No | 4c | 1,300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed No | 39c | 1,026$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…cb81backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 19c | 1,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 804$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf052…0ce7backed No | 18c | 641.3$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf0…6924backed Yes | 66c | 635.27$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58b7…01ebbacked No | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed No | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7614…ac0abacked No | 17c | 576.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…ca64backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +124%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a82…30aebacked Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5800…3401backed No | 15c | 401.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked No | 35c | 400.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 64c | 370$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53da…7603backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…dc80backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cec…831ebacked Yes | 68c | 299.97$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…63bfbacked No | 17c | 297.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d33…4702backed Yes | 64c | 281.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 32c | 199.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…b550backed No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…52e8backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +368.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…736bbacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ed…a7c7backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…4605backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…5f83backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…6370backed No | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 28c | 84.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f6…2ad8backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…1d1dbacked No | 35c | 56.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b2…6e79backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 67c | 45.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…0354backed No | 32c | 41.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5c…fc56backed Yes | 69c | 41.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683e…bd2dbacked No | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9b…deddbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +158.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…59b1backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 in November?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.