TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,736,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,661,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,736,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes9c73,793$6,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,441.458713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c6b4backed Yes2c72,297$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.594413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes17c62,333$10,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,553.6535123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes9c46,500$4,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,382.8719535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc484…4cd5backed Yes7c34,369$2,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,456.2100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes11c24,962$2,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.1518425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x530e…cc11backed Yes20c20,242$4,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,127.726123%14 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+143.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c19,343$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.41015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes18c16,717$3,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,024.3411554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes4c15,029$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.4210313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No74c14,364$10,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,667.5414337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1dd…903fbacked Yes8c14,271$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf2…15bbbacked Yes13c12,820$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.3560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6cd…77c1backed No72c11,822$8,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,266.01650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec90…487cbacked Yes0c11,244$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c11,093$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.81,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0bd…f6a8backed Yes11c10,704$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1501020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f0…ef9fbacked Yes0c10,400$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a7…e277backed Yes0c10,346$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b6a…31f4backed Yes0c10,220$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb016…982dbacked Yes0c10,168$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes14c10,150$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.5147721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0a…df43backed Yes10c10,104$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.1860%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e0…4012backed Yes10c9,935$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.541020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes12c9,256$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.6725824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde92…5e10backed Yes8c9,251$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.85742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4469…f927backed Yes12c8,348$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes15c7,274$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.558920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes7c7,161$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.718315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c7,010$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.021070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes11c6,965$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.4155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aed…46fabacked Yes16c6,211$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.8200%0 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3081…b1f6backed Yes11c5,623$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…ae5fbacked Yes21c5,538$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.6570%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44e3…d5dabacked Yes4c5,291$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c5,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.63013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-42.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6088…d77bbacked Yes21c4,855$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cd…f566backed Yes10c4,493$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.263917.9%7 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+105%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes6c4,410$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.9680%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54fa…0fbcbacked Yes15c4,375$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.3342.9%1 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick15cpaid-88.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes10c4,332$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.225514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick15cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d70…b809backed Yes12c4,094$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9353…4229backed Yes12c4,090$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+46.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5128…13d9backed Yes25c4,049$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c3,762$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.141488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23b8…63acbacked Yes20c3,730$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.1147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd21…efdbbacked Yes3c3,699$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.345735.1%20 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb76f…970cbacked Yes9c3,633$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330200%0 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a4…fca5backed Yes15c3,364$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes19c3,200$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.64721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c4…a051backed Yes8c3,099$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes20c3,000$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6121729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes17c2,876$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006013.3%8 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes2c2,775$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.74517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3561…29f7backed Yes11c2,662$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eba…9993backed Yes11c2,632$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe551…7382backed Yes1c2,533$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+81.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd772…ceb5backed No77c2,515$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb290…9055backed Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes12c2,312$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2755819%11 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95b8…7645backed Yes19c2,288$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.421216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes14c2,252$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.4612824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…346abacked Yes15c2,249$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5a…9042backed Yes14c2,190$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bda…7251backed Yes10c2,164$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.741711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Yes12c2,095$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.191020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc25a…f814backed Yes10c2,003$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick31cpaid+36.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6b6…af8bbacked No76c2,000$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.1914075.7%106 W · 34 L+17.6wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+22.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x41e9…8f9fbacked Yes8c1,997$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.322045%9 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+56.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7719…fbc8backed Yes3c1,882$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c8…de9ebacked Yes13c1,875$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d8…d7b9backed Yes13c1,873$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes5c1,720$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.72170%0 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd69…0986backed Yes12c1,653$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-85%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28b6…2a9fbacked Yes12c1,522$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed No75c1,322$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.07580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes7c1,221$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.471693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4bc…c5fabacked Yes38c1,136$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-52.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b34…cca8backed No79c1,112$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a99…a499backed Yes28c1,089$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes6c1,080$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.457423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20cb…f655backed Yes8c1,020$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.551315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick6cpaid+67.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7865…d868backed Yes22c1,006$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b3…6486backed Yes26c1,000$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d7…eaf2backed Yes25c1,000$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24970%0 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3010…0929backed Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc1c…ad56backed Yes15c999.95$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.281330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b4…9420backed Yes5c999.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed No76c992.56$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.665971.2%42 W · 17 L+11.1wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x821f…2dfbbacked Yes9c990.52$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.95333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe527…dbc5backed Yes8c979$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No79c924$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.8511265.2%73 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe784…e664backed Yes20c900$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2683…b5bfbacked No77c848$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.746041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e0…e93ebacked No77c800$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48c1…8febbacked Yes8c789.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f6…5564backed Yes15c781.15$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a8…53a3backed Yes16c773.88$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47d2…bb41backed Yes6c773$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.